TSMC (TSM) Dividend Capture: 0.28% per event (0.9% annualized)
TSM
TSMC (TSM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.12), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TSM sits noticeably below the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 11, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.95.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 85%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.12in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 85%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.12in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.26%in line with sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 55%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -5.24%-0.55pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 30
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.95
- Per-event yield
- 0.28%
- Annualized yield
- 0.89%
- Previously paid
- Mar 17, 2026 ($0.96)
- Last record date
- Mar 17, 2026
- Last payment date
- Apr 9, 2026
How TSM ranks in Technology
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (48 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#46of 48
Beats ~4% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 48
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#32of 48
Beats ~33% of peers on this metric
TSM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for TSMC (TSM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.96 | 0.11% | $340.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.77% | +1.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -1.55% | $310.14 | 15 | no | yes | -11.30% | -7.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | 1.74% | $261.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.30% | +8.48% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -0.55% | $214.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.69% | -1.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -1.06% | $176.24 | 3 | yes | yes | -9.37% | +2.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | 0.02% | $194.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | 0.22% | $170.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.27% | +3.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.02% | $172.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.39% | +0.81% | |
| Q1 | $0.44 | 2.34% | $136.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.88% | +2.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | 1.20% | $102.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +0.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | 1.71% | $91.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.89% | -6.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -1.06% | $107.41 | >30 | no | no | -6.88% | -4.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -0.87% | $86.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +9.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -1.01% | $80.02 | 16 | no | yes | -8.97% | -5.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -1.36% | $79.66 | >30 | no | no | -11.25% | -4.63% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -4.39% | $89.13 | 30 | no | yes | -10.11% | -3.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | 0.88% | $102.09 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.71% | +3.56% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.05% | $120.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.39% | +0.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -1.23% | $121.50 | >30 | no | no | -8.63% | -4.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.29% | $118.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.09% | -0.36% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.96
- Gap %
- 0.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $340.23
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.77%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.17%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.80
- Gap %
- -1.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $310.14
- High touch (td)
- 15
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -11.30%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.95%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.82
- Gap %
- 1.74%
- Pre-ex close
- $261.38
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.30%
- P&L 5d %
- +8.48%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Gap %
- -0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $214.10
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.69%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.86%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.54
- Gap %
- -1.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $176.24
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.37%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.95%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.48
- Gap %
- 0.02%
- Pre-ex close
- $194.60
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.70%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.27%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.49
- Gap %
- 0.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $170.23
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.27%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.81%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.43
- Gap %
- -0.02%
- Pre-ex close
- $172.98
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.39%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.81%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.44
- Gap %
- 2.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $136.98
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.88%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.69%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.38
- Gap %
- 1.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $102.12
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.13%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.79%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.37
- Gap %
- 1.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $91.22
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.89%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.02%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Gap %
- -1.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $107.41
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -6.88%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.80%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.36
- Gap %
- -0.87%
- Pre-ex close
- $86.70
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.01%
- P&L 5d %
- +9.51%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Gap %
- -1.01%
- Pre-ex close
- $80.02
- High touch (td)
- 16
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.97%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.48%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- -1.36%
- Pre-ex close
- $79.66
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -11.25%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.63%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.36
- Gap %
- -4.39%
- Pre-ex close
- $89.13
- High touch (td)
- 30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.11%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.19%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.38
- Gap %
- 0.88%
- Pre-ex close
- $102.09
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.71%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.56%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.39
- Gap %
- -0.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $120.40
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.39%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.56%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.39
- Gap %
- -1.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $121.50
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -8.63%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.05%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Gap %
- -0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $118.02
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.09%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.36%
TSM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1365%
- 2–3 days15%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days315%
- 30+315%
65% within 1d · 70% within 5d · 85% within 30d
TSM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TSM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $190.00
- After-tax dividend
- $123.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$68.05
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$55.45
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.08%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~4.1%
TSM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TSM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TSM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.30% | |
| -4.05% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -3.19% | |
| -4.63% | |
| -5.48% | |
| +0.41% | |
| -4.80% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.31% | |
| -7.95% | |
| +0.28% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See TSM seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for TSM?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for TSMC (TSM), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take TSM to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, TSM touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 30 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on TSM large enough to capture?
TSM has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.12 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for TSM?
The next ex-dividend date for TSMC (TSM) is Jun 11, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does TSM compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Technology, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. TSM sits at 85% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does TSM dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.