TSMC (TSM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.12), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TSM sits noticeably below the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 16, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.11.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.12in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.12 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.26% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.24% | -0.62pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 30 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $1.11 |
| Per-event yield | 0.33% |
| Annualized yield | 0.82% |
| Previously paid | Mar 17, 2026 ($0.96) |
| Last record date | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 9, 2026 |
TSM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for TSMC (TSM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.96 | 0.11% | $340.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.77% | +1.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -1.55% | $310.14 | 15 | no | yes | -11.30% | -7.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | 1.74% | $261.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.30% | +8.48% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -0.55% | $214.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.69% | -1.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -1.06% | $176.24 | 3 | yes | yes | -9.37% | +2.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | 0.02% | $194.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | 0.22% | $170.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.27% | +3.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.02% | $172.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.39% | +0.81% | |
| Q1 | $0.44 | 2.34% | $136.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.88% | +2.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | 1.20% | $102.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +0.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | 1.71% | $91.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.89% | -6.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -1.06% | $107.41 | >30 | no | no | -6.88% | -4.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -0.87% | $86.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +9.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -1.01% | $80.02 | 16 | no | yes | -8.97% | -5.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -1.36% | $79.66 | >30 | no | no | -11.25% | -4.63% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -4.39% | $89.13 | 30 | no | yes | -10.11% | -3.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | 0.88% | $102.09 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.71% | +3.56% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.05% | $120.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.39% | +0.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -1.23% | $121.50 | >30 | no | no | -8.63% | -4.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.29% | $118.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.09% | -0.36% |
- +1.17%
- -7.95%
- +8.48%
- -1.86%
- +2.95%
- +0.27%
- +3.81%
- +0.81%
- +2.69%
- +0.79%
- -6.02%
- -4.80%
- +9.51%
- -5.48%
- -4.63%
- -3.19%
- +3.56%
- +0.56%
- -4.05%
- -0.36%
TSM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
TSM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TSM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $222.00
- After-tax dividend
- $144.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$68.05
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$76.25
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.11%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.6%
TSM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TSM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TSM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.30% | |
| -4.05% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -3.19% | |
| -4.63% | |
| -5.48% | |
| +0.41% | |
| -4.80% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.31% | |
| -7.95% | |
| +0.28% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.