Trane Technologies (TT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.15), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TT sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 4, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.05.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.15in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.15 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.04% | +0.32pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.31% | +0.72pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $1.05 |
| Per-event yield | 0.24% |
| Annualized yield | 0.85% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($1.05) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
TT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Trane Technologies (TT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.05 | -2.29% | $436.36 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.14% | -2.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.94 | -0.36% | $405.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.96% | -3.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.94 | 0.43% | $413.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.54% | -2.77% | |
| Q2 | $0.94 | 0.54% | $430.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.25% | -1.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.94 | -0.32% | $341.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.47% | +2.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.84 | 0.15% | $415.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.59% | -3.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.84 | 0.88% | $342.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +6.46% | |
| Q2 | $0.84 | -0.00% | $318.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.88% | +3.77% | |
| Q1 | $0.84 | 0.00% | $283.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.64% | +1.64% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.58% | $222.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.63% | +4.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | 0.01% | $205.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +0.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.46% | $163.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.73% | +8.82% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -0.75% | $185.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.99% | +2.25% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | 0.34% | $178.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.88% | -0.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | -0.29% | $154.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +6.77% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | 0.43% | $136.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.94% | -1.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | 0.64% | $155.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.18% | -3.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.59 | 0.52% | $185.44 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.15% | +9.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.59 | 0.41% | $197.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.70% | -3.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | -0.71% | $185.11 | 7 | no | yes | -2.39% | -0.45% |
- -2.96%
- -3.26%
- -2.77%
- -1.97%
- +2.05%
- -3.58%
- +6.46%
- +3.77%
- +1.64%
- +4.25%
- +0.37%
- +8.82%
- +2.25%
- -0.33%
- +6.77%
- -1.01%
- -3.67%
- +9.06%
- -3.65%
- -0.45%
TT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
TT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $210.00
- After-tax dividend
- $136.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$87.27
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$49.23
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.06%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.8%
TT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -0.45% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.24% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.