Visa (V) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, V sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 11, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.10-0.21 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.10 | -0.21 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.24% | +0.34pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.82% | +1.55pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
| Dividend | $0.67 |
| Per-event yield | 0.21% |
| Annualized yield | 0.80% |
| Previously paid | Feb 10, 2026 ($0.67) |
| Last record date | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 2, 2026 |
V Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Visa (V). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.67 | -0.27% | $325.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.91% | -1.42% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | -0.20% | $338.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.17% | -4.17% | |
| Q3 | $0.59 | -0.21% | $335.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.32% | +2.13% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | -0.09% | $355.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.02% | +3.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.59 | -0.83% | $351.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.49% | +1.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.59 | -0.60% | $310.92 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +0.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.25% | $259.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.42% | +3.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | 0.09% | $281.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.70% | -2.40% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | 0.05% | $279.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.37% | +0.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.52% | $244.77 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +1.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | 0.36% | $239.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.86% | -0.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -0.22% | $231.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.86% | +1.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | 0.96% | $230.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.90% | -1.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.54% | $201.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.19% | +4.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | 0.56% | $212.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.03% | +1.66% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -1.11% | $196.72 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.44% | +0.52% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -1.23% | $230.87 | >30 | no | no | -12.74% | -2.55% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | 0.07% | $213.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.91% | -3.73% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | -0.50% | $235.06 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.62% | -1.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | 0.40% | $220.63 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.12% | +2.78% |
- -1.42%
- -4.17%
- +2.13%
- +3.25%
- +1.31%
- +0.49%
- +3.11%
- -2.40%
- +0.76%
- +1.58%
- -0.81%
- +1.20%
- -1.70%
- +4.37%
- +1.66%
- +0.52%
- -2.55%
- -3.73%
- -1.35%
- +2.78%
V Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
V Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with V's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $134.00
- After-tax dividend
- $87.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$65.12
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$21.98
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.03%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~1.7%
V Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical V ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · V (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.15% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -2.55% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.21% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.