Walmart (WMT) Dividend Capture: 0.20% per event (0.7% annualized)
WMT
Walmart (WMT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.48), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, WMT sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 8, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.25.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.48+0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.48+0.10 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.28%+0.34pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.59%+1.48pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 2
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Per-event yield
- 0.20%
- Annualized yield
- 0.74%
- Previously paid
- Mar 20, 2026 ($0.25)
- Last record date
- Mar 20, 2026
- Last payment date
- Apr 6, 2026
How WMT ranks in Consumer Defensive
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (40 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#12of 40
Beats ~70% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 40
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#12of 40
Beats ~70% of peers on this metric
WMT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Walmart (WMT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.38% | $121.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +1.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | -0.23% | $115.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.30% | -0.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.22% | $100.85 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.38% | -3.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.70% | $97.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.69% | +1.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.62% | $85.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | -0.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.31% | $94.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.51% | -1.75% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.66% | $73.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +3.73% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | -0.17% | $60.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +6.50% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | 0.00% | $61.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +0.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | 0.19% | $51.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.92% | -0.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.07% | $53.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.67% | -2.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.06% | $50.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +2.79% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.15% | $46.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.48% | +1.93% | |
| Q4 | $0.56 | 0.04% | $49.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.95% | -1.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | 0.42% | $43.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.42% | +8.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -0.64% | $51.54 | >30 | no | no | -21.40% | -3.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.56 | -0.62% | $48.45 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.64% | -0.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.39% | $45.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +5.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.66% | $50.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +1.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | -0.43% | $46.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.46% | -0.51% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -0.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $121.09
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.54%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.69%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.23
- Gap %
- -0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $115.52
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.30%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.80%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.23
- Gap %
- -0.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $100.85
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.38%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.75%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.23
- Gap %
- -0.70%
- Pre-ex close
- $97.43
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.69%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.07%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.23
- Gap %
- -0.62%
- Pre-ex close
- $85.81
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.68%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.50%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.31%
- Pre-ex close
- $94.09
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.51%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.75%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.66%
- Pre-ex close
- $73.18
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.90%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.73%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $60.30
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.43%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.50%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $61.28
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.71%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.62%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- 0.19%
- Pre-ex close
- $51.35
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.92%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.12%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.07%
- Pre-ex close
- $53.64
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.67%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.18%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $50.21
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.27%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.79%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $46.55
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.48%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.93%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.56
- Gap %
- 0.04%
- Pre-ex close
- $49.70
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.95%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.39%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.56
- Gap %
- 0.42%
- Pre-ex close
- $43.05
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.42%
- P&L 5d %
- +8.99%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.56
- Gap %
- -0.64%
- Pre-ex close
- $51.54
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -21.40%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.53%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.56
- Gap %
- -0.62%
- Pre-ex close
- $48.45
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.64%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.58%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.39%
- Pre-ex close
- $45.72
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.05%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.71%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.66%
- Pre-ex close
- $50.00
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.34%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.18%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $46.87
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.46%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.51%
WMT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1680%
- 2–3 days315%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+15%
80% within 1d · 95% within 5d · 95% within 30d
WMT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with WMT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $50.00
- After-tax dividend
- $32.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$24.22
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$8.28
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.03%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~1.7%
WMT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical WMT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · WMT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.17% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +1.20% | |
| +1.16% | |
| -3.53% | |
| +1.30% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.20% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See WMT seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for WMT?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Walmart (WMT), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take WMT to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, WMT touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 2 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on WMT large enough to capture?
WMT has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.48 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for WMT?
The next ex-dividend date for Walmart (WMT) is May 8, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does WMT compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Defensive, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. WMT sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does WMT dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.