Walmart (WMT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.46), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, WMT sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 21, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.25.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.46+0.07 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.46 | +0.07 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.27% | +0.36pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.59% | +1.53pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.25 |
| Per-event yield | 0.20% |
| Annualized yield | 0.83% |
| Previously paid | Mar 20, 2026 ($0.25) |
| Last record date | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 6, 2026 |
WMT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Walmart (WMT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.38% | $121.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +1.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | -0.23% | $115.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.30% | -0.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.22% | $100.85 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.38% | -3.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.70% | $97.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.69% | +1.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.62% | $85.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | -0.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.31% | $94.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.51% | -1.75% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.66% | $73.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +3.73% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | -0.17% | $60.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +6.50% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | 0.00% | $61.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +0.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | 0.19% | $51.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.92% | -0.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.07% | $53.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.67% | -2.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.06% | $50.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +2.79% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.15% | $46.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.48% | +1.93% | |
| Q4 | $0.56 | 0.04% | $49.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.95% | -1.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | 0.42% | $43.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.42% | +8.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -0.64% | $51.54 | >30 | no | no | -21.40% | -3.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.56 | -0.62% | $48.45 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.64% | -0.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.39% | $45.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +5.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.66% | $50.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +1.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | -0.43% | $46.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.46% | -0.51% |
- +1.69%
- -0.80%
- -3.75%
- +1.07%
- -0.50%
- -1.75%
- +3.73%
- +6.50%
- +0.62%
- -0.12%
- -2.18%
- +2.79%
- +1.93%
- -1.39%
- +8.99%
- -3.53%
- -0.58%
- +5.71%
- +1.18%
- -0.51%
WMT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
WMT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with WMT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $50.00
- After-tax dividend
- $32.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$24.22
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$8.28
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.03%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~1.7%
WMT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical WMT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · WMT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.17% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +1.20% | |
| +1.16% | |
| -3.53% | |
| +1.30% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.20% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.