Apple (AAPL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.06), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AAPL sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 10, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.06-0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.06 | -0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.31% | +0.64pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.49% | +2.13pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.27 |
| Per-event yield | 0.10% |
| Annualized yield | 0.36% |
| Previously paid | Feb 9, 2026 ($0.26) |
| Last record date | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 12, 2026 |
AAPL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Apple (AAPL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.08% | $278.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.15% | -5.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 0.18% | $268.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.17% | -0.28% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.62% | $229.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.43% | +0.78% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | 6.27% | $198.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.55% | +5.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 0.85% | $227.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.19% | +7.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.14% | $227.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.63% | -0.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.08% | $216.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.30% | +4.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 0.18% | $184.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +3.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.24 | 0.18% | $188.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.42% | -3.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.24 | 0.86% | $182.41 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.61% | +4.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.24 | -0.37% | $177.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.38% | -1.82% | |
| Q2 | $0.24 | -0.07% | $173.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.92% | +0.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.93% | $150.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.41% | +1.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 2.31% | $138.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.24% | +7.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -1.57% | $165.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.69% | +3.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.48% | $156.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.87% | -6.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.71% | $172.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.67% | -2.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | 0.62% | $150.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.31% | -0.50% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -0.48% | $147.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.74% | +1.54% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | 0.86% | $129.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.77% | -1.60% |
- -5.03%
- -0.28%
- +0.78%
- +5.29%
- +7.51%
- -0.98%
- +4.58%
- +3.01%
- -3.06%
- +4.12%
- -1.82%
- +0.95%
- +1.27%
- +7.96%
- +3.93%
- -6.02%
- -2.34%
- -0.50%
- +1.54%
- -1.60%
AAPL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 20 | 100% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
AAPL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AAPL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $54.00
- After-tax dividend
- $35.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$55.62
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-20.52
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.04%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.04%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-1.9%
AAPL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AAPL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AAPL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.17% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.10% | |
| +0.09% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.