Allegion (ALLE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.16), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ALLE sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.16in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.16 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.39% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.20% | +0.83pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
| Dividend | $0.55 |
| Per-event yield | 0.38% |
| Annualized yield | 1.59% |
| Previously paid | Mar 13, 2026 ($0.55) |
| Last record date | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
ALLE Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Allegion (ALLE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.55 | 0.53% | $145.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.15% | -1.93% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -0.90% | $163.06 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.05% | -1.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | 0.03% | $175.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +1.89% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -1.44% | $138.67 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.88% | +3.09% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | 0.61% | $124.99 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +2.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.91% | $137.52 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.75% | -2.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -0.70% | $143.75 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +0.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -1.82% | $119.16 | 6 | no | yes | -4.68% | -0.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.28% | $132.76 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.09% | +2.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.61% | $118.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +6.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -1.13% | $106.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.12% | -1.92% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | 0.07% | $117.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.62% | -0.79% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | 1.42% | $105.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.05% | +1.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.41 | -1.94% | $109.77 | 15 | no | yes | -6.00% | -3.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.41 | -0.48% | $95.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.95% | -4.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.41 | 0.06% | $101.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.12% | -4.00% | |
| Q1 | $0.41 | 0.36% | $111.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.68% | +5.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | 0.31% | $131.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.56% | -1.28% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -0.67% | $139.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.07% | -2.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -0.18% | $138.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.26% | +0.54% |
- -1.93%
- -1.18%
- +1.89%
- +3.09%
- +2.06%
- -2.91%
- +0.35%
- -0.24%
- +2.27%
- +6.74%
- -1.92%
- -0.79%
- +1.31%
- -3.81%
- -4.32%
- -4.00%
- +5.30%
- -1.28%
- -2.03%
- +0.54%
ALLE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
ALLE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ALLE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $110.00
- After-tax dividend
- $71.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$29.17
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$42.33
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.15%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~7.3%
ALLE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ALLE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ALLE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.26% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -3.81% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.36% | |
| -0.24% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.38% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.