Andersons (ANDE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.15), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ANDE sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.15-0.24 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.15 | -0.24 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.45% | +0.19pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.92% | +0.20pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
ANDE Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Andersons (ANDE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.77% | $71.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +3.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.02% | $53.17 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.65% | +3.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.63% | $39.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +5.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -0.68% | $36.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.68% | +4.39% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.42% | $42.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.42% | -14.52% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | 0.64% | $40.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.04% | +4.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | -0.66% | $50.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.19% | -1.02% | |
| Q3 | $0.19 | 0.00% | $49.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.49% | -5.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.19 | 0.30% | $57.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.07% | +0.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | -0.36% | $58.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.94% | -5.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | 0.08% | $52.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.52% | -4.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | 0.11% | $45.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +2.18% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | 0.42% | $40.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.31% | -1.21% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | -1.02% | $35.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.64% | -3.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | -0.91% | $30.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +4.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -1.98% | $32.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.55% | -5.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | -1.15% | $51.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.57% | +3.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | -0.52% | $38.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +2.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | -0.54% | $31.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.35% | +1.77% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | -0.90% | $31.17 | >30 | no | no | -15.05% | -6.85% |
- +3.68%
- +3.50%
- +5.34%
- +4.39%
- -14.52%
- +4.68%
- -1.02%
- -5.63%
- +0.54%
- -5.26%
- -4.68%
- +2.18%
- -1.21%
- -3.34%
- +4.26%
- -5.70%
- +3.18%
- +2.85%
- +1.77%
- -6.85%
ANDE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
ANDE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ANDE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $40.00
- After-tax dividend
- $26.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$14.36
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$11.64
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.08%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~4.1%
ANDE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ANDE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ANDE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -6.85% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.28% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.