What is the dividend capture success rate for ANDE?

Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Andersons (ANDE), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.

How long does it take ANDE to recover its dividend gap?

Historically, ANDE touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 2 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.

Is the dividend on ANDE large enough to capture?

ANDE has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.15 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.

How does ANDE compare to its sector for dividend capture?

Within Consumer Defensive, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. ANDE sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.

Why does ANDE dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?

A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".

How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?

Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.

What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?

Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.

Andersons (ANDE) Dividend Capture: 0.28% per event (1.1% annualized)

Updated May 6, 202620 eventshigh

Andersons

ANDE

Andersons (ANDE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.15), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.

Versus its sector, ANDE sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.

Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.

Touch rate (30d): 95%in line with sector
Median days-to-touch: 1din line with sector
Signal-to-noise: 0.15-0.24 vs sector

Recovery engine

TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.

30-day touch rate: 95%
in line with sector
Median days-to-touch: 1d
in line with sector
Signal-to-noise (div / ATR): 0.15
-0.24 vs sector
Avg gap on ex-date: -0.45%
+0.17pp vs sector
Win rate at MOC exit: 55%
Median drawdown during hold: -3.92%
+0.15pp vs sector
Best / worst touch (days): 1 / 2

Next ex-dividend

The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.

How ANDE ranks in Consumer Defensive

Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (40 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.

Full sector ranking

30-day touch rate
#12of 40
Beats ~70% of peers on this metric
Median days to touch
#1of 40
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
Signal-to-noise
#36of 40
Beats ~10% of peers on this metric

ANDE Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events

Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Andersons (ANDE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.

						Recovered 5d	Recovered 30d
Apr 1, 2026	Q2	$0.20	-0.77%	$71.78	1	yes	yes	-2.23%	+3.68%
Jan 2, 2026	Q1	$0.20	-0.02%	$53.17	2	yes	yes	-3.65%	+3.50%
Oct 1, 2025	Q4	$0.20	-0.63%	$39.81	1	yes	yes	-1.46%	+5.34%
Jul 1, 2025	Q3	$0.20	-0.68%	$36.75	1	yes	yes	-0.68%	+4.39%
Apr 1, 2025	Q2	$0.20	-0.42%	$42.93	1	yes	yes	-16.42%	-14.52%
Jan 2, 2025	Q1	$0.20	0.64%	$40.52	1	yes	yes	-3.04%	+4.68%
Oct 1, 2024	Q4	$0.19	-0.66%	$50.14	1	yes	yes	-4.19%	-1.02%
Jul 1, 2024	Q3	$0.19	0.00%	$49.60	1	yes	yes	-6.49%	-5.63%
Mar 28, 2024	Q1	$0.19	0.30%	$57.32	1	yes	yes	-3.07%	+0.54%
Dec 29, 2023	Q4	$0.19	-0.36%	$58.42	1	yes	yes	-10.94%	-5.26%
Sep 29, 2023	Q3	$0.18	0.08%	$52.46	1	yes	yes	-6.52%	-4.68%
Jun 30, 2023	Q2	$0.18	0.11%	$45.70	1	yes	yes	-1.86%	+2.18%
Mar 31, 2023	Q1	$0.18	0.42%	$40.81	1	yes	yes	-4.31%	-1.21%
Dec 30, 2022	Q4	$0.18	-1.02%	$35.44	1	yes	yes	-5.64%	-3.34%
Sep 30, 2022	Q3	$0.18	-0.91%	$30.72	1	yes	yes	-0.91%	+4.26%
Jun 30, 2022	Q2	$0.18	-1.98%	$32.81	1	yes	yes	-10.55%	-5.70%
Mar 31, 2022	Q1	$0.18	-1.15%	$51.24	1	yes	yes	-4.57%	+3.18%
Dec 31, 2021	Q4	$0.18	-0.52%	$38.58	1	yes	yes	-1.45%	+2.85%
Sep 30, 2021	Q3	$0.17	-0.54%	$31.34	1	yes	yes	-3.35%	+1.77%
Jul 2, 2021	Q3	$0.17	-0.90%	$31.17	>30	no	no	-15.05%	-6.85%

Ex-date Apr 1, 2026Q2
Dividend
$0.20
Gap %
-0.77%
Pre-ex close
$71.78
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.23%
P&L 5d %
+3.68%
Ex-date Jan 2, 2026Q1
Dividend
$0.20
Gap %
-0.02%
Pre-ex close
$53.17
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.65%
P&L 5d %
+3.50%
Ex-date Oct 1, 2025Q4
Dividend
$0.20
Gap %
-0.63%
Pre-ex close
$39.81
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.46%
P&L 5d %
+5.34%
Ex-date Jul 1, 2025Q3
Dividend
$0.20
Gap %
-0.68%
Pre-ex close
$36.75
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.68%
P&L 5d %
+4.39%
Ex-date Apr 1, 2025Q2
Dividend
$0.20
Gap %
-0.42%
Pre-ex close
$42.93
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-16.42%
P&L 5d %
-14.52%
Ex-date Jan 2, 2025Q1
Dividend
$0.20
Gap %
0.64%
Pre-ex close
$40.52
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.04%
P&L 5d %
+4.68%
Ex-date Oct 1, 2024Q4
Dividend
$0.19
Gap %
-0.66%
Pre-ex close
$50.14
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.19%
P&L 5d %
-1.02%
Ex-date Jul 1, 2024Q3
Dividend
$0.19
Gap %
0.00%
Pre-ex close
$49.60
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-6.49%
P&L 5d %
-5.63%
Ex-date Mar 28, 2024Q1
Dividend
$0.19
Gap %
0.30%
Pre-ex close
$57.32
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.07%
P&L 5d %
+0.54%
Ex-date Dec 29, 2023Q4
Dividend
$0.19
Gap %
-0.36%
Pre-ex close
$58.42
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-10.94%
P&L 5d %
-5.26%
Ex-date Sep 29, 2023Q3
Dividend
$0.18
Gap %
0.08%
Pre-ex close
$52.46
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-6.52%
P&L 5d %
-4.68%
Ex-date Jun 30, 2023Q2
Dividend
$0.18
Gap %
0.11%
Pre-ex close
$45.70
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.86%
P&L 5d %
+2.18%
Ex-date Mar 31, 2023Q1
Dividend
$0.18
Gap %
0.42%
Pre-ex close
$40.81
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.31%
P&L 5d %
-1.21%
Ex-date Dec 30, 2022Q4
Dividend
$0.18
Gap %
-1.02%
Pre-ex close
$35.44
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-5.64%
P&L 5d %
-3.34%
Ex-date Sep 30, 2022Q3
Dividend
$0.18
Gap %
-0.91%
Pre-ex close
$30.72
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.91%
P&L 5d %
+4.26%
Ex-date Jun 30, 2022Q2
Dividend
$0.18
Gap %
-1.98%
Pre-ex close
$32.81
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-10.55%
P&L 5d %
-5.70%
Ex-date Mar 31, 2022Q1
Dividend
$0.18
Gap %
-1.15%
Pre-ex close
$51.24
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.57%
P&L 5d %
+3.18%
Ex-date Dec 31, 2021Q4
Dividend
$0.18
Gap %
-0.52%
Pre-ex close
$38.58
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.45%
P&L 5d %
+2.85%
Ex-date Sep 30, 2021Q3
Dividend
$0.17
Gap %
-0.54%
Pre-ex close
$31.34
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.35%
P&L 5d %
+1.77%
Ex-date Jul 2, 2021Q3
Dividend
$0.17
Gap %
-0.90%
Pre-ex close
$31.17
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-15.05%
P&L 5d %
-6.85%

ANDE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution

20 events analyzedHigh touched pre-ex within 5 trading days: 95% (19 events)

≤ 1 day
1890%
2–3 days
15%
4–5 days
00%
6–10 days
00%
11–30 days
00%
30+
15%

90% within 1d · 95% within 5d · 95% within 30d

ANDE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield

Pre-filled with ANDE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.

ANDE dividend ($)ANDE price ($)SharesHold (days)Tax %?Slippage % per leg

Slippage preset

Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.

Display

Gross dividend: $40.00
After-tax dividend: $26.00
Slippage round-trip: -$14.36
Net if price returns to pre-ex: +$11.64
Required recovery to break even: 0.00%
Per-event after-tax yield: +0.08%
Annual if all succeed: ~4.1%

Scenariosbase rate 95%

Best (limit fills)+$11.64

Average (base rate)+$9.64

Worst (no recovery)$28.36

Open in full calculator →

ANDE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator

Replay every historical ANDE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.

Limit window:Quarter:

Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).

Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).

Avg P&L per trade(20 events)+0.07%

Win rate (20 trades)

95%

Cumulative P&L

+1.42%Sum of per-event % (not compounded)

Buy & hold (same sample)

+145.24%Span: Jul 2, 2021 → Apr 1, 2026 · long-horizon total return vs repeating capture cycles

Best event

Sep 30, 2022+0.59%

Worst event

Jul 2, 2021-6.85%

Cumulative P&L (equity curve)

Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.

Jul 2, 2021Apr 1, 2026

Per-event P&L distribution

20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).

<-3%

-3..-1%

-1..0%

0..1%

1..3%

>3%

Scenario P&L by event · ANDE (20)

Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.

Ex-date	P&L
Jul 2, 2021	-6.85%
Sep 30, 2021	+0.56%
Dec 31, 2021	+0.47%
Mar 31, 2022	+0.35%
Jun 30, 2022	+0.55%
Sep 30, 2022	+0.59%
Dec 30, 2022	+0.52%
Mar 31, 2023	+0.45%
Jun 30, 2023	+0.40%
Sep 29, 2023	+0.35%
Dec 29, 2023	+0.33%
Mar 28, 2024	+0.33%
Jul 1, 2024	+0.38%
Oct 1, 2024	+0.38%
Jan 2, 2025	+0.48%
Apr 1, 2025	+0.45%
Jul 1, 2025	+0.53%
Oct 1, 2025	+0.49%
Jan 2, 2026	+0.38%
Apr 1, 2026	+0.28%

Looking for full price seasonality? See ANDE seasonality →

Frequently asked questions

What is the dividend capture success rate for ANDE?: Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Andersons (ANDE), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take ANDE to recover its dividend gap?: Historically, ANDE touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 2 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on ANDE large enough to capture?: ANDE has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.15 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does ANDE compare to its sector for dividend capture?: Within Consumer Defensive, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. ANDE sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does ANDE dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?: A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?: Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?: Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.