Brown & Brown (BRO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.07), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, BRO sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 11, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.07-0.23 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.07 | -0.23 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.32% | +0.90pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 75% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -1.39% | +2.98pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
| Dividend | $0.17 |
| Per-event yield | 0.23% |
| Annualized yield | 1.17% |
| Previously paid | Feb 4, 2026 ($0.17) |
| Last record date | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 11, 2026 |
BRO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Brown & Brown (BRO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.17 | -0.28% | $71.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.73% | -6.64% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | -0.24% | $78.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.57% | +1.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.14% | $94.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.34% | +2.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 1.10% | $111.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.79% | +0.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.58% | $105.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.25% | +3.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 6.02% | $107.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.07% | +4.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | 0.00% | $99.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.71% | +2.07% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | 0.76% | $82.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +5.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -0.58% | $77.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.28% | +3.25% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | 0.07% | $68.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.65% | +3.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | 0.00% | $71.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | -0.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | 0.34% | $64.11 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.33% | +2.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | -0.02% | $58.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.83% | +0.04% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | 0.43% | $58.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.11% | -3.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.10 | -0.32% | $65.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.47% | +4.54% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | -0.83% | $58.96 | 16 | no | yes | -8.57% | -1.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.10 | -0.93% | $68.08 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.83% | +1.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | 0.00% | $61.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +2.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.09 | 0.11% | $54.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.24% | +3.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.09 | -0.49% | $53.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.17% | -1.77% |
- -6.64%
- +1.74%
- +2.30%
- +0.75%
- +3.33%
- +4.14%
- +2.07%
- +5.25%
- +3.25%
- +3.48%
- -0.61%
- +2.63%
- +0.04%
- -3.78%
- +4.54%
- -1.62%
- +1.65%
- +2.01%
- +3.42%
- -1.77%
BRO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
BRO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with BRO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $34.00
- After-tax dividend
- $22.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$14.39
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$7.71
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.05%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.7%
BRO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical BRO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · BRO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.17% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.15% | |
| -1.62% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.23% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.