CEG dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 94% /30d touch rate over 18 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Constellation Energy (CEG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 94% of the last 18 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.05), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CEG sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 15, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
94%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.05
TL;DR over the most recent 18 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 94% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.05 | -0.40 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.35% | +0.34pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 72% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.88% | -0.14pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.43
Per-event yield
0.15%
Annualized yield
0.61%
Previously paid
May 15, 2026 ($0.43)
Last record date
May 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 5, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Constellation Energy (CEG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.43 | -1.67% | $275.26 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.96% | +6.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | -2.13% | $319.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.91% | -4.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.54% | $338.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.26% | +4.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.05% | $322.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.42% | -3.46% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | 0.77% | $284.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.84% | +4.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | 0.20% | $207.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.84% | +4.41% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.24% | $225.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +11.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | 0.07% | $189.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.03% | +1.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -1.94% | $231.27 | >30 | no | no | -15.16% | -9.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | 0.98% | $179.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.62% | -8.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | 0.83% | $121.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.83% | +1.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -0.26% | $105.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.36% | -0.63% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -1.11% | $79.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.54% | +2.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -1.88% | $79.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.07% | +0.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.14 | -0.34% | $92.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.73% | +1.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.14 | 1.04% | $78.83 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.27% | +2.73% | |
| Q2 | $0.14 | -0.10% | $57.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.48% | +0.00% | |
| Q1 | $0.14 | 0.14% | $43.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +15.25% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 89% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 6% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 6% |
Pre-filled with CEG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical CEG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 18 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (18 events)
-0.32%
Win rate (18 trades)
94%
Cumulative P&L
-5.84%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+532.88%
Best event
+0.36%
Worst event
-9.33%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
18 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CEG (18)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.33% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.20% | |
| -9.33% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.15% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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