CMS Energy (CMS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.41), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CMS sits noticeably below the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 7, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.41in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.41 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.62% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.81% | +1.03pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.57 |
| Per-event yield | 0.74% |
| Annualized yield | 3.06% |
| Previously paid | Feb 17, 2026 ($0.57) |
| Last record date | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 27, 2026 |
CMS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for CMS Energy (CMS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.21% | $76.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.28% | +0.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -0.55% | $72.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.66% | +2.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.54 | -0.20% | $74.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.41% | -2.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -0.39% | $72.60 | >30 | no | no | -6.74% | -0.81% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -0.36% | $69.82 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +4.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.16% | $68.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.35% | +1.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.15% | $66.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.25% | -0.69% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.25% | $62.91 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.51% | +0.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -0.96% | $56.27 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.08% | +2.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -1.04% | $54.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +0.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -1.06% | $60.28 | >30 | no | no | -7.28% | -3.95% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.51% | $61.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.53% | +1.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -0.31% | $60.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +3.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -1.68% | $57.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.82% | +4.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.71% | $69.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.09% | -0.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -0.92% | $68.84 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.79% | +0.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -1.26% | $64.82 | 15 | no | yes | -5.65% | -3.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -0.63% | $60.15 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +0.61% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -0.43% | $63.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.11% | +0.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.20% | $64.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.85% | -0.37% |
- +0.79%
- +2.95%
- -2.26%
- -0.81%
- +4.07%
- +1.37%
- -0.69%
- +0.34%
- +2.69%
- +0.91%
- -3.95%
- +1.39%
- +3.24%
- +4.59%
- -0.29%
- +0.29%
- -3.02%
- +0.61%
- +0.28%
- -0.37%
CMS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
CMS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CMS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $114.00
- After-tax dividend
- $74.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$15.35
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$58.75
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.38%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~19.3%
CMS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CMS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CMS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.68% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.72% | |
| -3.02% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -3.95% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.78% | |
| -0.81% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.74% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.