CenterPoint Energy (CNP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.33), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CNP sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 20, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.33-0.12 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.33 | -0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.45% | +0.23pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.70% | +1.14pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
| Dividend | $0.23 |
| Per-event yield | 0.55% |
| Annualized yield | 2.12% |
| Previously paid | Feb 19, 2026 ($0.23) |
| Last record date | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 12, 2026 |
CNP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for CenterPoint Energy (CNP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.23 | 0.60% | $41.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.19% | +3.12% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.03% | $39.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.89% | +1.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -0.62% | $38.50 | 16 | no | yes | -4.94% | -2.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.19% | $36.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.57% | +2.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | 0.00% | $34.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.43% | -0.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.57% | $31.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +3.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -1.40% | $25.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.40% | +5.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | 0.37% | $29.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +1.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.55% | $27.44 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.09% | +2.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.83% | $27.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.12% | +1.16% | |
| Q3 | $0.19 | -0.42% | $28.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +0.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | -0.28% | $28.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.66% | -0.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.19 | -1.43% | $29.28 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.97% | -1.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | -0.55% | $29.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.37% | +6.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | -0.52% | $32.83 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.39% | -1.16% | |
| Q2 | $0.17 | -0.10% | $31.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.63% | +2.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -0.86% | $26.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.31% | -0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | -0.60% | $26.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.85% | +0.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.16 | -0.63% | $26.85 | >30 | no | no | -7.49% | -3.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.16 | -1.01% | $24.70 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.96% | +2.31% |
- +3.12%
- +1.49%
- -2.08%
- +2.16%
- -0.38%
- +3.99%
- +5.32%
- +1.95%
- +2.30%
- +1.16%
- +0.35%
- -0.45%
- -1.02%
- +6.39%
- -1.16%
- +2.04%
- -0.63%
- +0.60%
- -3.61%
- +2.31%
CNP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
CNP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CNP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $46.00
- After-tax dividend
- $29.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$8.39
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$21.51
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.26%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.9%
CNP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CNP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CNP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.65% | |
| -3.61% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -2.08% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.55% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.