ConocoPhillips (COP) Dividend Capture: 0.77% per event (2.7% annualized)
ConocoPhillips (COP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, COP sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 11, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.84.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.25-0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.25-0.08 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.56%+0.23pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 65%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.41%+2.85pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 17
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.84
- Per-event yield
- 0.77%
- Annualized yield
- 2.68%
- Previously paid
- Feb 18, 2026 ($0.84)
- Last record date
- Feb 18, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 2, 2026
How COP ranks in Energy
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (26 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#7of 26
Beats ~73% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 26
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#17of 26
Beats ~35% of peers on this metric
COP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for ConocoPhillips (COP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.84 | 1.05% | $108.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.62% | +1.90% | |
| Q4 | $0.84 | -0.92% | $91.37 | 12 | no | yes | -6.21% | -3.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.91% | $95.33 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +3.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.78 | -0.74% | $92.43 | 17 | no | yes | -8.82% | -6.60% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | 0.01% | $96.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +2.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.78 | -1.16% | $112.40 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.58% | +0.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.15% | $108.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +3.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.78 | -0.28% | $123.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.02% | -0.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -0.98% | $110.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +1.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.54% | $115.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.87% | +0.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | 1.32% | $120.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.05% | -5.17% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -1.01% | $117.69 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.25% | -0.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.30% | $100.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +4.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.10% | $99.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +4.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -0.89% | $97.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.08% | +9.66% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.96% | $115.06 | >30 | no | no | -10.52% | -8.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.66% | $112.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +0.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -1.18% | $133.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.50% | -5.94% | |
| Q3 | $1.40 | 0.07% | $98.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.30% | +18.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -4.24% | $102.75 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.06% | +2.87% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.84
- Gap %
- 1.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $108.78
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.62%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.90%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.84
- Gap %
- -0.92%
- Pre-ex close
- $91.37
- High touch (td)
- 12
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.21%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.25%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.78
- Gap %
- -0.91%
- Pre-ex close
- $95.33
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.24%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.81%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.78
- Gap %
- -0.74%
- Pre-ex close
- $92.43
- High touch (td)
- 17
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.82%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.60%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.78
- Gap %
- 0.01%
- Pre-ex close
- $96.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.72%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.79%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.78
- Gap %
- -1.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $112.40
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.58%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.62%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.78
- Gap %
- -0.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $108.61
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.69%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.60%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.78
- Gap %
- -0.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $123.39
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.02%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.73%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.78
- Gap %
- -0.98%
- Pre-ex close
- $110.12
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.16%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.97%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- -0.54%
- Pre-ex close
- $115.61
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.87%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.31%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- 1.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $120.14
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.05%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.17%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- -1.01%
- Pre-ex close
- $117.69
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.25%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.88%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.30%
- Pre-ex close
- $100.46
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.10%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.35%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- -0.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $99.43
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.02%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.84%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.89%
- Pre-ex close
- $97.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.08%
- P&L 5d %
- +9.66%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- -0.96%
- Pre-ex close
- $115.06
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -10.52%
- P&L 5d %
- -8.03%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- 0.66%
- Pre-ex close
- $112.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.16%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.81%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- -1.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $133.96
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.50%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.94%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.40
- Gap %
- 0.07%
- Pre-ex close
- $98.76
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.30%
- P&L 5d %
- +18.80%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.46
- Gap %
- -4.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $102.75
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.06%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.87%
COP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1365%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days210%
- 30+15%
65% within 1d · 85% within 5d · 95% within 30d
COP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with COP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $168.00
- After-tax dividend
- $109.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$21.76
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$87.44
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.40%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~20.3%
COP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical COP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · COP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.45% | |
| +1.42% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -8.03% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -6.60% | |
| +0.82% | |
| -3.25% | |
| +0.77% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See COP seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for COP?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for ConocoPhillips (COP), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take COP to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, COP touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 17 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on COP large enough to capture?
COP has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.25 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for COP?
The next ex-dividend date for ConocoPhillips (COP) is May 11, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does COP compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Energy, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. COP sits at 95% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does COP dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.