ConocoPhillips (COP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, COP sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 10, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.25-0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.25 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.56% | +0.25pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.41% | +2.77pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 17 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
| Dividend | $0.84 |
| Per-event yield | 0.77% |
| Annualized yield | 2.86% |
| Previously paid | Feb 18, 2026 ($0.84) |
| Last record date | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 2, 2026 |
COP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for ConocoPhillips (COP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.84 | 1.05% | $108.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.62% | +1.90% | |
| Q4 | $0.84 | -0.92% | $91.37 | 12 | no | yes | -6.21% | -3.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.91% | $95.33 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +3.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.78 | -0.74% | $92.43 | 17 | no | yes | -8.82% | -6.60% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | 0.01% | $96.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +2.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.78 | -1.16% | $112.40 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.58% | +0.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.15% | $108.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +3.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.78 | -0.28% | $123.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.02% | -0.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -0.98% | $110.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +1.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.54% | $115.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.87% | +0.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | 1.32% | $120.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.05% | -5.17% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -1.01% | $117.69 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.25% | -0.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.30% | $100.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +4.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.10% | $99.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | +4.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -0.89% | $97.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.08% | +9.66% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.96% | $115.06 | >30 | no | no | -10.52% | -8.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.66% | $112.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +0.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -1.18% | $133.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.50% | -5.94% | |
| Q3 | $1.40 | 0.07% | $98.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.30% | +18.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -4.24% | $102.75 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.06% | +2.87% |
- +1.90%
- -3.25%
- +3.81%
- -6.60%
- +2.79%
- +0.62%
- +3.60%
- -0.73%
- +1.97%
- +0.31%
- -5.17%
- -0.88%
- +4.35%
- +4.84%
- +9.66%
- -8.03%
- +0.81%
- -5.94%
- +18.80%
- +2.87%
COP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
COP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with COP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $168.00
- After-tax dividend
- $109.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$21.76
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$87.44
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.40%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~20.3%
COP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical COP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · COP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.45% | |
| +1.42% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -8.03% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -6.60% | |
| +0.82% | |
| -3.25% | |
| +0.77% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.