Chevron (CVX) Dividend Capture: 0.97% per event (3.6% annualized)
CVX
Chevron (CVX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.49), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CVX sits noticeably below the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 19, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.78.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 80%-15pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.49+0.17 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 80%-15pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.49+0.17 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -1.19%-0.40pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 70%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.98%+1.29pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 27
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.78
- Per-event yield
- 0.97%
- Annualized yield
- 3.62%
- Previously paid
- Feb 17, 2026 ($1.78)
- Last record date
- Feb 17, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 10, 2026
How CVX ranks in Energy
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (26 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#24of 26
Beats ~8% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#17of 26
Beats ~35% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#7of 26
Beats ~73% of peers on this metric
CVX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Chevron (CVX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.78 | -0.24% | $183.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.72% | +1.84% | |
| Q4 | $1.71 | -1.50% | $154.82 | >30 | no | no | -4.57% | -2.96% | |
| Q3 | $1.71 | -1.20% | $155.32 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +2.41% | |
| Q2 | $1.71 | -1.85% | $142.10 | 15 | no | yes | -5.86% | -1.80% | |
| Q1 | $1.71 | -0.51% | $155.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.95% | +2.39% | |
| Q4 | $1.63 | -0.53% | $161.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +0.35% | |
| Q3 | $1.63 | -0.86% | $147.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | +1.94% | |
| Q2 | $1.63 | -0.93% | $163.05 | >30 | no | no | -4.12% | -2.75% | |
| Q1 | $1.63 | -0.73% | $151.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.89% | +3.50% | |
| Q4 | $1.51 | -1.75% | $145.56 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.33% | +0.58% | |
| Q3 | $1.51 | 0.35% | $158.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.22% | +0.52% | |
| Q2 | $1.51 | -1.82% | $155.71 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.83% | +0.23% | |
| Q1 | $1.51 | -1.69% | $172.32 | >30 | no | no | -7.78% | -5.15% | |
| Q4 | $1.42 | -1.88% | $184.99 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.96% | +0.07% | |
| Q3 | $1.42 | -0.35% | $157.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.08% | +5.29% | |
| Q2 | $1.42 | 0.05% | $174.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.44% | +1.61% | |
| Q1 | $1.42 | -2.63% | $136.67 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.50% | +0.22% | |
| Q4 | $1.34 | -2.05% | $117.28 | 6 | no | yes | -5.27% | +1.07% | |
| Q3 | $1.34 | -2.03% | $100.73 | 27 | no | yes | -7.81% | -0.87% | |
| Q2 | $1.34 | -1.69% | $110.81 | >30 | no | no | -7.98% | -5.05% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.78
- Gap %
- -0.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $183.74
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.72%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.84%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.71
- Gap %
- -1.50%
- Pre-ex close
- $154.82
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -4.57%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.96%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.71
- Gap %
- -1.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $155.32
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.23%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.41%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.71
- Gap %
- -1.85%
- Pre-ex close
- $142.10
- High touch (td)
- 15
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.86%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.80%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.71
- Gap %
- -0.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $155.88
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.95%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.39%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.63
- Gap %
- -0.53%
- Pre-ex close
- $161.42
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.65%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.35%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.63
- Gap %
- -0.86%
- Pre-ex close
- $147.27
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.85%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.94%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.63
- Gap %
- -0.93%
- Pre-ex close
- $163.05
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -4.12%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.75%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.63
- Gap %
- -0.73%
- Pre-ex close
- $151.01
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.89%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.50%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.51
- Gap %
- -1.75%
- Pre-ex close
- $145.56
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.33%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.58%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.51
- Gap %
- 0.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $158.63
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.22%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.52%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.51
- Gap %
- -1.82%
- Pre-ex close
- $155.71
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.83%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.23%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.51
- Gap %
- -1.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $172.32
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -7.78%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.15%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.42
- Gap %
- -1.88%
- Pre-ex close
- $184.99
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.96%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.07%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.42
- Gap %
- -0.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $157.70
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.08%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.29%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.42
- Gap %
- 0.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $174.03
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.44%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.61%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.42
- Gap %
- -2.63%
- Pre-ex close
- $136.67
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.50%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.22%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.34
- Gap %
- -2.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $117.28
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.27%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.07%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.34
- Gap %
- -2.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $100.73
- High touch (td)
- 27
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.81%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.87%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.34
- Gap %
- -1.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $110.81
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -7.98%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.05%
CVX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day840%
- 2–3 days315%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days210%
- 30+420%
40% within 1d · 65% within 5d · 80% within 30d
CVX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CVX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $356.00
- After-tax dividend
- $231.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$36.75
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$194.65
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.53%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~26.7%
CVX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CVX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CVX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -5.05% | |
| -0.87% | |
| +1.07% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.77% | |
| -5.15% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.08% | |
| -2.75% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +1.10% | |
| -1.80% | |
| +1.10% | |
| -2.96% | |
| +0.97% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See CVX seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for CVX?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Chevron (CVX), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take CVX to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, CVX touches its pre-ex close in a median of 2 trading days, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 27 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on CVX large enough to capture?
CVX has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.49 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for CVX?
The next ex-dividend date for Chevron (CVX) is May 19, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does CVX compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Energy, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. CVX sits at 80% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does CVX dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.