Chevron (CVX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.49), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CVX sits noticeably below the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 18, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.49+0.17 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.49 | +0.17 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.17% | -0.35pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.98% | +1.21pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 27 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $1.78 |
| Per-event yield | 0.97% |
| Annualized yield | 3.54% |
| Previously paid | Feb 17, 2026 ($1.78) |
| Last record date | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 10, 2026 |
CVX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Chevron (CVX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.78 | -0.24% | $183.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.72% | +1.84% | |
| Q4 | $1.71 | -1.50% | $154.82 | >30 | no | no | -4.57% | -2.96% | |
| Q3 | $1.71 | -1.20% | $155.32 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +2.41% | |
| Q2 | $1.71 | -1.85% | $142.10 | 15 | no | yes | -5.86% | -1.80% | |
| Q1 | $1.71 | -0.51% | $155.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.95% | +2.39% | |
| Q4 | $1.63 | -0.53% | $161.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +0.35% | |
| Q3 | $1.63 | -0.86% | $147.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | +1.94% | |
| Q2 | $1.63 | -0.93% | $163.05 | >30 | no | no | -4.12% | -2.75% | |
| Q1 | $1.63 | -0.73% | $151.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.89% | +3.50% | |
| Q4 | $1.51 | -1.75% | $145.56 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.33% | +0.58% | |
| Q3 | $1.51 | 0.35% | $158.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.22% | +0.52% | |
| Q2 | $1.51 | -1.82% | $155.71 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.83% | +0.23% | |
| Q1 | $1.51 | -1.69% | $172.32 | >30 | no | no | -7.78% | -5.15% | |
| Q4 | $1.42 | -1.88% | $184.99 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.96% | +0.07% | |
| Q3 | $1.42 | -0.35% | $157.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.08% | +5.29% | |
| Q2 | $1.42 | 0.05% | $174.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.44% | +1.61% | |
| Q1 | $1.42 | -2.63% | $136.67 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.50% | +0.22% | |
| Q4 | $1.34 | -2.05% | $117.28 | 6 | no | yes | -5.27% | +1.07% | |
| Q3 | $1.34 | -2.03% | $100.73 | 27 | no | yes | -7.81% | -0.87% | |
| Q2 | $1.34 | -1.69% | $110.81 | >30 | no | no | -7.98% | -5.05% |
- +1.84%
- -2.96%
- +2.41%
- -1.80%
- +2.39%
- +0.35%
- +1.94%
- -2.75%
- +3.50%
- +0.58%
- +0.52%
- +0.23%
- -5.15%
- +0.07%
- +5.29%
- +1.61%
- +0.22%
- +1.07%
- -0.87%
- -5.05%
CVX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
CVX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CVX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $356.00
- After-tax dividend
- $231.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$36.75
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$194.65
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.53%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~26.7%
CVX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CVX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CVX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -5.05% | |
| -0.87% | |
| +1.07% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.77% | |
| -5.15% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.08% | |
| -2.75% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +1.10% | |
| -1.80% | |
| +1.10% | |
| -2.96% | |
| +0.97% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.