Dominion Energy (D) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.60), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, D sits noticeably below the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 28, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.60+0.15 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.60 | +0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.88% | -0.20pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.65% | +0.19pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 7 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
| Dividend | $0.67 |
| Per-event yield | 1.05% |
| Annualized yield | 3.99% |
| Previously paid | Feb 27, 2026 ($0.67) |
| Last record date | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 20, 2026 |
D Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Dominion Energy (D). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.67 | -1.07% | $63.35 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.07% | +0.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | -1.42% | $59.84 | 7 | no | yes | -3.73% | +0.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | -0.85% | $58.79 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +3.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -1.22% | $55.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.54% | +1.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | -0.14% | $56.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.68% | -1.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | -0.87% | $59.70 | >30 | no | no | -10.32% | -5.00% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | -1.00% | $56.12 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +3.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -1.03% | $53.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.79% | -2.60% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | -0.72% | $48.35 | 6 | no | yes | -8.65% | +0.64% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | -1.39% | $46.73 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.25% | +2.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | -0.65% | $49.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.54% | -3.46% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -1.41% | $50.28 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +7.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | -1.41% | $54.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.32% | +0.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | -0.47% | $61.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.35% | -3.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | -0.84% | $81.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +2.48% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -0.24% | $83.71 | >30 | no | no | -12.50% | -4.42% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | -0.66% | $80.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.97% | +3.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.63 | -0.68% | $70.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.68% | +8.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -0.63% | $78.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.55% | -1.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.63 | -1.10% | $76.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +2.21% |
- +0.88%
- +0.26%
- +3.28%
- +1.41%
- -1.05%
- -5.00%
- +3.42%
- -2.60%
- +0.64%
- +2.52%
- -3.46%
- +7.31%
- +0.36%
- -3.52%
- +2.48%
- -4.42%
- +3.39%
- +8.43%
- -1.33%
- +2.21%
D Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
D Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with D's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $134.00
- After-tax dividend
- $87.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$12.67
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$74.43
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.59%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~29.6%
D Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical D ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · D (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.82% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -4.42% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +1.09% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.33% | |
| +1.35% | |
| +1.43% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +1.25% | |
| +1.19% | |
| -5.00% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.19% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +1.05% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.