Dow (DOW) Dividend Capture: 1.17% per event (3.4% annualized)
DOW
Dow (DOW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.60), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DOW sits noticeably below the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 29, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.35.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 85%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.60+0.40 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 85%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.60+0.40 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -1.08%-0.69pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 40%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -5.38%-0.74pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 19
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Per-event yield
- 1.17%
- Annualized yield
- 3.43%
- Previously paid
- Feb 27, 2026 ($0.35)
- Last record date
- Feb 27, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 13, 2026
How DOW ranks in Basic Materials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (28 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#22of 28
Beats ~21% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 28
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#2of 28
Beats ~93% of peers on this metric
DOW Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Dow (DOW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.35 | -2.21% | $29.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.34% | +12.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.75% | $23.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.85% | -2.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -1.14% | $24.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.90% | -0.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -2.88% | $28.79 | 6 | no | yes | -7.99% | +1.60% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -1.64% | $38.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.68% | -0.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.52% | $44.64 | >30 | no | no | -7.64% | -4.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -1.24% | $53.86 | 19 | no | yes | -8.06% | -3.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -1.32% | $57.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.11% | -1.67% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -1.42% | $56.27 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.31% | +2.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.35% | $51.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | -0.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -1.23% | $55.24 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.80% | -0.80% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -1.61% | $50.34 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.97% | +5.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.71% | $57.79 | 3 | yes | yes | -7.73% | +0.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.10% | $50.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +3.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -1.38% | $53.57 | >30 | no | no | -11.22% | -7.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.37% | $67.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.81% | -0.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.51% | $58.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.17% | +1.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.52% | $57.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.60% | -5.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.58% | $65.38 | >30 | no | no | -8.12% | -4.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.36% | $69.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.67% | +2.16% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Gap %
- -2.21%
- Pre-ex close
- $29.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.34%
- P&L 5d %
- +12.47%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Gap %
- -0.75%
- Pre-ex close
- $23.91
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.85%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.51%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Gap %
- -1.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $24.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.90%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.98%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -2.88%
- Pre-ex close
- $28.79
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.99%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.60%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.64%
- Pre-ex close
- $38.43
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.68%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.73%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.52%
- Pre-ex close
- $44.64
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -7.64%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.37%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $53.86
- High touch (td)
- 19
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.06%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.45%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $57.39
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.11%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.67%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.42%
- Pre-ex close
- $56.27
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.31%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.29%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $51.69
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.13%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.19%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $55.24
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.80%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.80%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.61%
- Pre-ex close
- $50.34
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.97%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.86%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $57.79
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.73%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.03%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- 0.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $50.20
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.63%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.09%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $53.57
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -11.22%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.28%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.37%
- Pre-ex close
- $67.84
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.81%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.10%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $58.72
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.17%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.38%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- 0.52%
- Pre-ex close
- $57.60
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.60%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.24%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.58%
- Pre-ex close
- $65.38
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -8.12%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.30%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.36%
- Pre-ex close
- $69.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.67%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.16%
DOW Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1050%
- 2–3 days315%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+315%
50% within 1d · 75% within 5d · 85% within 30d
DOW Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with DOW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $70.00
- After-tax dividend
- $45.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$5.98
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$39.52
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.66%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~33.3%
DOW Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical DOW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DOW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.01% | |
| -4.30% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.19% | |
| +1.03% | |
| -7.28% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +1.27% | |
| +1.35% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.22% | |
| -3.45% | |
| -4.37% | |
| +1.82% | |
| +1.60% | |
| +1.42% | |
| +1.46% | |
| +1.17% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See DOW seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for DOW?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Dow (DOW), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take DOW to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, DOW touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 19 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on DOW large enough to capture?
DOW has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.60 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for DOW?
The next ex-dividend date for Dow (DOW) is May 29, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does DOW compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Basic Materials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. DOW sits at 85% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does DOW dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.