DOW dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 85% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Dow (DOW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.59), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DOW sits noticeably below the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 28, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
85%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.59
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 85% | -10pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.59 | +0.41 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.10% | -0.73pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -6.11% | -1.17pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 19 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
Dividend
$0.35
Per-event yield
1.01%
Annualized yield
4.15%
Previously paid
May 29, 2026 ($0.35)
Last record date
May 29, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 12, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Dow (DOW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.83% | $34.77 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.33% | -1.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -2.21% | $29.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.34% | +12.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.75% | $23.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.85% | -2.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -1.14% | $24.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.90% | -0.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -2.88% | $28.79 | 6 | no | yes | -7.99% | +1.60% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -1.64% | $38.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.68% | -0.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.52% | $44.64 | >30 | no | no | -7.64% | -4.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -1.24% | $53.86 | 19 | no | yes | -8.06% | -3.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -1.32% | $57.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.11% | -1.67% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -1.42% | $56.27 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.31% | +2.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.35% | $51.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | -0.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -1.23% | $55.24 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.80% | -0.80% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -1.61% | $50.34 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.97% | +5.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.71% | $57.79 | 3 | yes | yes | -7.73% | +0.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.10% | $50.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +3.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -1.38% | $53.57 | >30 | no | no | -11.22% | -7.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.37% | $67.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.81% | -0.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.51% | $58.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.17% | +1.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.52% | $57.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.60% | -5.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.58% | $65.38 | >30 | no | no | -8.12% | -4.30% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
Pre-filled with DOW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical DOW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.08%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
+1.61%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-29.11%
Best event
+1.82%
Worst event
-7.28%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DOW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -4.30% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.19% | |
| +1.03% | |
| -7.28% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +1.27% | |
| +1.35% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.22% | |
| -3.45% | |
| -4.37% | |
| +1.82% | |
| +1.60% | |
| +1.42% | |
| +1.46% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.01% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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