Consolidated Edison (ED) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 3 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.47), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ED sits noticeably below the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 12, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 3d+2.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.47in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 3d | +2.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.47 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.73% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.97% | +0.87pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
| Dividend | $0.89 |
| Per-event yield | 0.78% |
| Annualized yield | 3.27% |
| Previously paid | Feb 18, 2026 ($0.89) |
| Last record date | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 16, 2026 |
ED Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Consolidated Edison (ED). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.89 | -0.95% | $113.92 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.27% | -1.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.85 | -0.78% | $102.91 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.55% | -1.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.85 | -0.80% | $103.69 | >30 | no | no | -4.16% | -1.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.85 | -1.30% | $100.58 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.78% | +5.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.85 | -0.91% | $95.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +5.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | -0.26% | $97.04 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.22% | +1.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -1.27% | $101.60 | 9 | no | yes | -2.91% | -0.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.83 | -0.35% | $97.64 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.62% | -0.48% | |
| Q1 | $0.83 | -1.11% | $89.45 | 15 | no | yes | -3.94% | -0.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | 1.02% | $88.37 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.38% | +3.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | -1.36% | $89.56 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.46% | +0.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.81 | -1.03% | $98.48 | >30 | no | no | -6.36% | -3.85% | |
| Q1 | $0.81 | -0.91% | $92.80 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.75% | +0.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -0.38% | $89.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.56% | +7.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.79 | -0.87% | $100.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.84% | -0.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.79 | -0.16% | $95.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.08% | +6.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | -0.48% | $83.02 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.51% | +2.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.78 | -0.88% | $78.77 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.98% | +1.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -1.02% | $78.25 | >30 | no | no | -4.83% | -3.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.78 | -1.08% | $78.73 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.96% | -0.18% |
- -1.78%
- -1.87%
- -1.04%
- +5.46%
- +5.27%
- +1.72%
- -0.34%
- -0.48%
- -0.01%
- +3.32%
- +0.70%
- -3.85%
- +0.45%
- +7.48%
- -0.74%
- +6.46%
- +2.61%
- +1.49%
- -3.14%
- -0.18%
ED Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 5 | 25% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
ED Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ED's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $178.00
- After-tax dividend
- $115.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$22.78
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$92.92
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.41%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~20.6%
ED Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ED ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ED (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.98% | |
| -3.14% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.87% | |
| -3.85% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.92% | |
| -0.01% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -0.34% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -1.04% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.78% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.