Exelon (EXC) Dividend Capture: 0.85% per event (3.6% annualized)
EXC
Exelon (EXC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.46), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EXC sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 4, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.42.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.46in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.46in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.71%in line with sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 65%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.60%+1.16pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 9
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.42
- Per-event yield
- 0.85%
- Annualized yield
- 3.55%
- Previously paid
- Mar 2, 2026 ($0.42)
- Last record date
- Mar 2, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 13, 2026
How EXC ranks in Utilities
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (45 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#12of 45
Beats ~73% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 45
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#20of 45
Beats ~56% of peers on this metric
EXC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Exelon (EXC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.42 | -0.85% | $49.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.50% | +0.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.00% | $46.21 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.47% | +1.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.90% | $45.32 | 8 | no | yes | -3.20% | -2.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -1.99% | $45.21 | >30 | no | no | -7.74% | -0.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.18% | $43.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.77% | +3.60% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.45% | $38.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.74% | +3.68% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -1.23% | $37.48 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.89% | +1.36% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.99% | $38.33 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.50% | +1.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -1.73% | $35.84 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +4.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | 1.03% | $38.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +1.13% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -0.96% | $40.51 | 9 | no | yes | -2.74% | -1.01% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -0.12% | $42.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.47% | -5.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -1.77% | $41.84 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.62% | -0.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | -0.28% | $39.11 | 7 | no | yes | -4.78% | -0.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.44% | $45.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.17% | +1.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.59% | $47.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.66% | +0.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | -0.32% | $40.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.10% | +6.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.72% | $39.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.74% | -0.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -0.29% | $34.37 | 2 | yes | yes | -0.96% | +2.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.46% | $30.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.72% | +7.36% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.42
- Gap %
- -0.85%
- Pre-ex close
- $49.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.50%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.18%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- -1.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $46.21
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.47%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.71%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- -0.90%
- Pre-ex close
- $45.32
- High touch (td)
- 8
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.20%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.03%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- -1.99%
- Pre-ex close
- $45.21
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -7.74%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.93%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- -0.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $43.39
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.77%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.60%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.38
- Gap %
- -0.45%
- Pre-ex close
- $38.09
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.74%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.68%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.38
- Gap %
- -1.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $37.48
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.89%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.36%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.38
- Gap %
- -0.99%
- Pre-ex close
- $38.33
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.50%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.64%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.38
- Gap %
- -1.73%
- Pre-ex close
- $35.84
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.40%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.19%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.36
- Gap %
- 1.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $38.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.16%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.13%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.36
- Gap %
- -0.96%
- Pre-ex close
- $40.51
- High touch (td)
- 9
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.74%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.01%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.36
- Gap %
- -0.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $42.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.47%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.30%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.36
- Gap %
- -1.77%
- Pre-ex close
- $41.84
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.62%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.24%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- -0.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $39.11
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.78%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.18%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- -0.44%
- Pre-ex close
- $45.70
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.17%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.70%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- -0.59%
- Pre-ex close
- $47.62
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.66%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.14%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- -0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $40.97
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.10%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.10%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.38
- Gap %
- -0.72%
- Pre-ex close
- $39.00
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.74%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.99%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.38
- Gap %
- -0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $34.37
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.96%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.33%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.38
- Gap %
- -0.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $30.74
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.72%
- P&L 5d %
- +7.36%
EXC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1050%
- 2–3 days525%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days315%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+15%
50% within 1d · 80% within 5d · 95% within 30d
EXC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with EXC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $84.00
- After-tax dividend
- $54.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$9.89
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$44.71
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.45%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~22.8%
EXC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical EXC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EXC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.24% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.74% | |
| -0.18% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -1.01% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +0.92% | |
| -0.93% | |
| -2.03% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.85% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See EXC seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for EXC?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Exelon (EXC), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take EXC to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, EXC touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 9 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on EXC large enough to capture?
EXC has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.46 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for EXC?
The next ex-dividend date for Exelon (EXC) is Jun 4, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does EXC compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Utilities, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. EXC sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does EXC dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.