Ford Motor (F) Dividend Capture: 1.07% per event (5.1% annualized)
Ford Motor (F) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 94% of the last 18 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.47), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, F sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 12, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.15.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 94%-1pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.47+0.26 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 18 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 94%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.47+0.26 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.83%-0.41pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -5.02%-0.34pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 11
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Per-event yield
- 1.07%
- Annualized yield
- 5.13%
- Previously paid
- Feb 13, 2026 ($0.15)
- Last record date
- Feb 13, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 2, 2026
How F ranks in Consumer Cyclical
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (44 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#30of 44
Beats ~32% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#3of 44
Beats ~93% of peers on this metric
F Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ford Motor (F). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.15 | -0.86% | $14.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.07% | -1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.22% | $13.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.64% | +1.68% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.18% | $11.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.30% | +2.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 1.25% | $10.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +4.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.69% | $9.48 | 6 | no | yes | -2.85% | +2.53% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.61% | $11.19 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.18% | +0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 0.72% | $9.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.31% | +5.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -0.80% | $12.50 | 6 | no | yes | -4.72% | +0.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | -1.67% | $12.56 | 11 | no | yes | -4.86% | -0.72% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.51% | $9.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +5.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.29% | $13.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.11% | -4.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -1.56% | $12.16 | 5 | yes | yes | -5.92% | -1.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -4.82% | $13.49 | >30 | no | no | -12.90% | +1.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.86% | $14.50 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.55% | -2.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 1.84% | $15.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +6.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | -1.45% | $15.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.66% | -5.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.10 | -1.18% | $19.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.94% | -7.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | 1.00% | $19.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.66% | -0.55% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -1.34% | $8.97 | 4 | yes | yes | -10.59% | -5.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.08% | $9.29 | >30 | no | no | -8.50% | -5.71% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.86%
- Pre-ex close
- $14.00
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.07%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.50%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $13.12
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.64%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.68%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $11.32
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.30%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.56%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 1.25%
- Pre-ex close
- $10.43
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.34%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.51%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- -1.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $9.48
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.85%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.53%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.61%
- Pre-ex close
- $11.19
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.18%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.27%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.72%
- Pre-ex close
- $9.78
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.31%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.62%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.80%
- Pre-ex close
- $12.50
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.72%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.72%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- -1.67%
- Pre-ex close
- $12.56
- High touch (td)
- 11
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.86%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.72%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $9.77
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.43%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.63%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $13.93
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.11%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.09%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.56%
- Pre-ex close
- $12.16
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.92%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.73%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.80
- Gap %
- -4.82%
- Pre-ex close
- $13.49
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -12.90%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.48%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.86%
- Pre-ex close
- $14.50
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.55%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.76%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 1.84%
- Pre-ex close
- $15.19
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.84%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.52%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.10
- Gap %
- -1.45%
- Pre-ex close
- $15.13
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.66%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.02%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.10
- Gap %
- -1.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $19.55
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -12.94%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.62%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.10
- Gap %
- 1.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $19.96
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.66%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.55%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $8.97
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.59%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.69%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.08%
- Pre-ex close
- $9.29
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -8.50%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.71%
F Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1155%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days210%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+210%
55% within 1d · 75% within 5d · 90% within 30d
F Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with F's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $30.00
- After-tax dividend
- $19.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$2.80
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$16.70
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.60%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~30.1%
F Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical F ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · F (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -5.71% | |
| +1.67% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.48% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +1.54% | |
| -0.72% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +1.53% | |
| +1.34% | |
| +2.53% | |
| +1.44% | |
| +1.33% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.07% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See F seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for F?
Across the last 18 ex-dividend events for Ford Motor (F), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 94% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take F to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, F touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 11 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on F large enough to capture?
F has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.47 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for F?
The next ex-dividend date for Ford Motor (F) is May 12, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does F compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Cyclical, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. F sits at 94% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does F dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.