Ford Motor (F) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 94% of the last 18 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.47), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, F sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 11, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 94%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.47+0.26 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 18 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 94% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.47 | +0.26 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.83% | -0.35pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.02% | -0.34pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 11 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
| Dividend | $0.15 |
| Per-event yield | 1.07% |
| Annualized yield | 5.00% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($0.15) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 2, 2026 |
F Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ford Motor (F). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.15 | -0.86% | $14.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.07% | -1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.22% | $13.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.64% | +1.68% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.18% | $11.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.30% | +2.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 1.25% | $10.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +4.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.69% | $9.48 | 6 | no | yes | -2.85% | +2.53% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.61% | $11.19 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.18% | +0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 0.72% | $9.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.31% | +5.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -0.80% | $12.50 | 6 | no | yes | -4.72% | +0.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | -1.67% | $12.56 | 11 | no | yes | -4.86% | -0.72% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.51% | $9.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +5.63% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.29% | $13.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.11% | -4.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -1.56% | $12.16 | 5 | yes | yes | -5.92% | -1.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -4.82% | $13.49 | >30 | no | no | -12.90% | +1.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.86% | $14.50 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.55% | -2.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 1.84% | $15.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +6.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.10 | -1.45% | $15.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.66% | -5.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.10 | -1.18% | $19.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.94% | -7.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.10 | 1.00% | $19.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.66% | -0.55% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -1.34% | $8.97 | 4 | yes | yes | -10.59% | -5.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.08% | $9.29 | >30 | no | no | -8.50% | -5.71% |
- -1.50%
- +1.68%
- +2.56%
- +4.51%
- +2.53%
- +0.27%
- +5.62%
- +0.72%
- -0.72%
- +5.63%
- -4.09%
- -1.73%
- +1.48%
- -2.76%
- +6.52%
- -5.02%
- -7.62%
- -0.55%
- -5.69%
- -5.71%
F Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
F Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with F's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $30.00
- After-tax dividend
- $19.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$2.80
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$16.70
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.60%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~30.1%
F Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical F ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · F (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -5.71% | |
| +1.67% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.48% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +1.54% | |
| -0.72% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +1.53% | |
| +1.34% | |
| +2.53% | |
| +1.44% | |
| +1.33% | |
| +1.14% | |
| +1.07% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.