FirstEnergy (FE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.54), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, FE sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 7, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.54+0.09 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.54 | +0.09 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.92% | -0.24pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.65% | +1.19pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 19 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.47 |
| Per-event yield | 0.99% |
| Annualized yield | 3.98% |
| Previously paid | Feb 6, 2026 ($0.45) |
| Last record date | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 1, 2026 |
FE Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for FirstEnergy (FE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.45 | -0.62% | $46.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +7.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.85% | $45.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.61% | +1.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -1.20% | $43.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +1.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -1.07% | $43.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.91% | -3.67% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | -1.12% | $40.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.89% | +0.74% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -0.72% | $41.58 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.21% | -0.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.71% | $42.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +1.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.64% | $39.24 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +2.23% | |
| Q1 | $0.41 | -1.30% | $36.22 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +3.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.41 | -1.00% | $36.82 | 8 | no | yes | -5.16% | -3.50% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.54% | $37.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.87% | +0.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.77% | $38.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | +2.18% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -1.29% | $39.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +3.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.39% | $38.21 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.98% | +0.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.96% | $39.40 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.50% | +2.69% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -1.10% | $43.65 | 16 | no | yes | -5.02% | -2.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -1.50% | $42.60 | 19 | no | yes | -7.37% | -1.53% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -1.04% | $39.25 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.46% | +0.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.68% | $38.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.10% | +1.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.61% | $37.88 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.01% | -0.03% |
- +7.57%
- +1.12%
- +1.53%
- -3.67%
- +0.74%
- -0.78%
- +1.34%
- +2.23%
- +3.15%
- -3.50%
- +0.24%
- +2.18%
- +3.19%
- +0.37%
- +2.69%
- -2.41%
- -1.53%
- +0.43%
- +1.74%
- -0.03%
FE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
FE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with FE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $94.00
- After-tax dividend
- $61.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$9.40
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$51.70
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.55%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~27.7%
FE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical FE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · FE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.03% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.99% | |
| -1.53% | |
| -2.41% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +1.05% | |
| -3.50% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.08% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.95% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.