GE Vernova (GEV) Dividend Capture: 0.06% per event (0.2% annualized)
GEV
GE Vernova (GEV) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 6 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.01), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, GEV sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.01-0.44 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 6 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.01-0.44 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- 0.67%+1.38pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -6.60%-2.84pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 1
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
How GEV ranks in Utilities
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (45 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#1of 45
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 45
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#46of 45
Beats ~-2% of peers on this metric
GEV Dividend Capture History — Last 6 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for GE Vernova (GEV). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.50 | 0.00% | $827.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.46% | +9.98% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | 1.63% | $679.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.19% | -5.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 1.35% | $600.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.21% | -2.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 0.27% | $574.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.52% | +12.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 2.16% | $328.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.69% | +13.56% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -1.40% | $332.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.94% | -0.69% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $827.37
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.46%
- P&L 5d %
- +9.98%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- 1.63%
- Pre-ex close
- $679.55
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.19%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.78%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- 1.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $600.00
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -11.21%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.56%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- 0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $574.60
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.52%
- P&L 5d %
- +12.76%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- 2.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $328.16
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.69%
- P&L 5d %
- +13.56%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -1.40%
- Pre-ex close
- $332.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.94%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.69%
GEV Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day6100%
- 2–3 days00%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+00%
100% within 1d · 100% within 5d · 100% within 30d
GEV Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with GEV's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $100.00
- After-tax dividend
- $65.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$165.47
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-100.47
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.06%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.06%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-3.1%
GEV Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical GEV ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
6 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · GEV (6)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.08% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.06% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See GEV seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for GEV?
Across the last 6 ex-dividend events for GE Vernova (GEV), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take GEV to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, GEV touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 1 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on GEV large enough to capture?
GEV has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.01 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does GEV compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Utilities, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. GEV sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does GEV dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.