GE Vernova (GEV) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 6 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.01), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, GEV sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 15, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.01-0.44 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 6 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.01 | -0.44 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.67% | +1.35pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -6.60% | -2.76pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.50 |
| Per-event yield | 0.06% |
| Annualized yield | 0.18% |
| Previously paid | Mar 17, 2026 ($0.50) |
| Last record date | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 14, 2026 |
GEV Dividend Capture History — Last 6 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for GE Vernova (GEV). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.50 | 0.00% | $827.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.46% | +9.98% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | 1.63% | $679.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.19% | -5.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 1.35% | $600.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.21% | -2.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 0.27% | $574.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.52% | +12.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 2.16% | $328.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.69% | +13.56% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -1.40% | $332.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.94% | -0.69% |
- +9.98%
- -5.78%
- -2.56%
- +12.76%
- +13.56%
- -0.69%
GEV Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 6 | 100% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
GEV Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with GEV's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $100.00
- After-tax dividend
- $65.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$165.47
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-100.47
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.06%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.06%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-3.1%
GEV Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical GEV ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
6 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · GEV (6)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.08% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.06% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.