Hershey (HSY) Dividend Capture: 0.65% per event (3.1% annualized)
HSY
Hershey (HSY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.29), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HSY sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 15, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.45.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.29-0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.29-0.10 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.54%in line with sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 60%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.91%+1.16pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 15
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.45
- Per-event yield
- 0.65%
- Annualized yield
- 3.05%
- Previously paid
- Feb 17, 2026 ($1.45)
- Last record date
- Feb 17, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 16, 2026
How HSY ranks in Consumer Defensive
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (40 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#12of 40
Beats ~70% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 40
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#27of 40
Beats ~33% of peers on this metric
HSY Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Hershey (HSY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.45 | -0.67% | $222.58 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +4.08% | |
| Q4 | $1.37 | 0.63% | $179.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.19% | +4.45% | |
| Q3 | $1.37 | 0.40% | $180.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.17% | +1.41% | |
| Q2 | $1.37 | -0.84% | $163.69 | 15 | no | yes | -8.34% | -4.26% | |
| Q1 | $1.37 | -0.50% | $160.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.08% | +11.44% | |
| Q4 | $1.37 | 0.02% | $170.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.61% | +3.50% | |
| Q3 | $1.37 | -1.03% | $196.66 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.74% | +0.53% | |
| Q2 | $1.37 | -0.43% | $205.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.31% | -1.46% | |
| Q1 | $1.37 | -0.69% | $192.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.20% | -1.35% | |
| Q4 | $1.19 | -0.42% | $195.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.89% | -1.46% | |
| Q3 | $1.19 | -0.26% | $219.49 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.63% | -2.01% | |
| Q2 | $1.04 | -0.71% | $267.50 | >30 | no | no | -4.67% | -2.27% | |
| Q1 | $1.04 | -0.94% | $237.47 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +1.09% | |
| Q4 | $1.04 | -0.81% | $223.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.07% | +5.22% | |
| Q3 | $1.04 | -0.39% | $230.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +1.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.90 | -1.56% | $207.69 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.02% | +1.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.90 | -0.69% | $202.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.72% | +1.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.90 | -0.49% | $179.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.35% | -0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -1.03% | $179.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.81% | -1.95% | |
| Q2 | $0.80 | -0.39% | $172.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.47% | +1.15% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.45
- Gap %
- -0.67%
- Pre-ex close
- $222.58
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.58%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.08%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.37
- Gap %
- 0.63%
- Pre-ex close
- $179.20
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.19%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.45%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.37
- Gap %
- 0.40%
- Pre-ex close
- $180.26
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.17%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.41%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.37
- Gap %
- -0.84%
- Pre-ex close
- $163.69
- High touch (td)
- 15
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.34%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.26%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.37
- Gap %
- -0.50%
- Pre-ex close
- $160.81
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.08%
- P&L 5d %
- +11.44%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.37
- Gap %
- 0.02%
- Pre-ex close
- $170.92
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.61%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.50%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.37
- Gap %
- -1.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $196.66
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.74%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.53%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.37
- Gap %
- -0.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $205.41
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.31%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.46%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.37
- Gap %
- -0.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $192.58
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.20%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.35%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.19
- Gap %
- -0.42%
- Pre-ex close
- $195.72
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.89%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.46%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.19
- Gap %
- -0.26%
- Pre-ex close
- $219.49
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.63%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.01%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.04
- Gap %
- -0.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $267.50
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -4.67%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.27%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.04
- Gap %
- -0.94%
- Pre-ex close
- $237.47
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.79%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.09%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.04
- Gap %
- -0.81%
- Pre-ex close
- $223.15
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.07%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.22%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.04
- Gap %
- -0.39%
- Pre-ex close
- $230.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.53%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.70%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.90
- Gap %
- -1.56%
- Pre-ex close
- $207.69
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.02%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.32%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.90
- Gap %
- -0.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $202.65
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.72%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.27%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.90
- Gap %
- -0.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $179.30
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.35%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.27%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.90
- Gap %
- -1.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $179.51
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.81%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.95%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.80
- Gap %
- -0.39%
- Pre-ex close
- $172.28
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.47%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.15%
HSY Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1365%
- 2–3 days525%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+15%
65% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 95% within 30d
HSY Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with HSY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $290.00
- After-tax dividend
- $188.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$44.52
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$143.98
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.32%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.3%
HSY Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical HSY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HSY (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.47% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.44% | |
| -2.27% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -4.26% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.65% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See HSY seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for HSY?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Hershey (HSY), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take HSY to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, HSY touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 15 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on HSY large enough to capture?
HSY has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.29 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for HSY?
The next ex-dividend date for Hershey (HSY) is May 15, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does HSY compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Defensive, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. HSY sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does HSY dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.