Hershey (HSY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.29), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HSY sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.29-0.10 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.29 | -0.10 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.55% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.91% | +1.20pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $1.45 |
| Per-event yield | 0.65% |
| Annualized yield | 3.02% |
| Previously paid | Feb 17, 2026 ($1.45) |
| Last record date | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 16, 2026 |
HSY Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Hershey (HSY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.45 | -0.67% | $222.58 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +4.08% | |
| Q4 | $1.37 | 0.63% | $179.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.19% | +4.45% | |
| Q3 | $1.37 | 0.40% | $180.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.17% | +1.41% | |
| Q2 | $1.37 | -0.84% | $163.69 | 15 | no | yes | -8.34% | -4.26% | |
| Q1 | $1.37 | -0.50% | $160.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.08% | +11.44% | |
| Q4 | $1.37 | 0.02% | $170.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.61% | +3.50% | |
| Q3 | $1.37 | -1.03% | $196.66 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.74% | +0.53% | |
| Q2 | $1.37 | -0.43% | $205.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.31% | -1.46% | |
| Q1 | $1.37 | -0.69% | $192.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.20% | -1.35% | |
| Q4 | $1.19 | -0.42% | $195.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.89% | -1.46% | |
| Q3 | $1.19 | -0.26% | $219.49 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.63% | -2.01% | |
| Q2 | $1.04 | -0.71% | $267.50 | >30 | no | no | -4.67% | -2.27% | |
| Q1 | $1.04 | -0.94% | $237.47 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +1.09% | |
| Q4 | $1.04 | -0.81% | $223.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.07% | +5.22% | |
| Q3 | $1.04 | -0.39% | $230.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +1.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.90 | -1.56% | $207.69 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.02% | +1.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.90 | -0.69% | $202.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.72% | +1.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.90 | -0.49% | $179.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.35% | -0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -1.03% | $179.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.81% | -1.95% | |
| Q2 | $0.80 | -0.39% | $172.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.47% | +1.15% |
- +4.08%
- +4.45%
- +1.41%
- -4.26%
- +11.44%
- +3.50%
- +0.53%
- -1.46%
- -1.35%
- -1.46%
- -2.01%
- -2.27%
- +1.09%
- +5.22%
- +1.70%
- +1.32%
- +1.27%
- -0.27%
- -1.95%
- +1.15%
HSY Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
HSY Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with HSY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $290.00
- After-tax dividend
- $188.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$44.52
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$143.98
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.32%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.3%
HSY Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical HSY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HSY (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.47% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.44% | |
| -2.27% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -4.26% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.65% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.