What is the dividend capture success rate for INTC?

Across the last 14 ex-dividend events for Intel (INTC), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 93% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.

How long does it take INTC to recover its dividend gap?

Historically, INTC touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 29 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.

Is the dividend on INTC large enough to capture?

INTC has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.19 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.

How does INTC compare to its sector for dividend capture?

Within Technology, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. INTC sits at 93% — at or below the sector benchmark.

Why does INTC dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?

A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".

How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?

Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.

What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?

Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.

Intel (INTC) Dividend Capture: 0.63% per event (2.6% annualized)

Updated May 6, 202614 eventshigh

Intel

INTC

Intel (INTC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 93% of the last 14 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.19), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.

Versus its sector, INTC sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.

Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.

Touch rate (30d): 93%-2pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 1din line with sector
Signal-to-noise: 0.19in line with sector

Recovery engine

TL;DR over the most recent 14 events.

30-day touch rate: 93%
-2pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 1d
in line with sector
Signal-to-noise (div / ATR): 0.19
in line with sector
Avg gap on ex-date: -0.56%
-0.23pp vs sector
Win rate at MOC exit: 45%
Median drawdown during hold: -3.55%
+1.14pp vs sector
Best / worst touch (days): 1 / 29

Next ex-dividend

The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.

How INTC ranks in Technology

Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (48 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.

Full sector ranking

30-day touch rate
#38of 48
Beats ~21% of peers on this metric
Median days to touch
#1of 48
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
Signal-to-noise
#20of 48
Beats ~58% of peers on this metric

INTC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events

Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Intel (INTC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.

						Recovered 5d	Recovered 30d
Aug 7, 2024	Q3	$0.13	0.45%	$19.83	1	yes	yes	-4.99%	+1.08%
May 6, 2024	Q2	$0.13	0.71%	$30.90	1	yes	yes	-3.79%	-0.86%
Feb 6, 2024	Q1	$0.13	-0.16%	$42.77	1	yes	yes	-1.47%	+1.20%
Nov 6, 2023	Q4	$0.13	-0.31%	$38.14	1	yes	yes	-1.02%	+0.56%
Aug 4, 2023	Q3	$0.13	-1.12%	$34.87	1	yes	yes	-7.23%	+0.42%
May 4, 2023	Q2	$0.13	-0.69%	$30.65	1	yes	yes	-6.43%	-5.43%
Feb 6, 2023	Q1	$0.36	-2.54%	$30.32	29	no	yes	-9.83%	-4.63%
Nov 4, 2022	Q4	$0.36	0.66%	$27.39	1	yes	yes	0.07%	+12.43%
Aug 4, 2022	Q3	$0.36	-1.40%	$36.52	9	no	yes	-5.80%	-1.55%
May 5, 2022	Q2	$0.36	-2.02%	$46.54	>30	no	no	-9.73%	-7.17%
Feb 4, 2022	Q1	$0.36	-0.87%	$48.28	2	yes	yes	-2.42%	-0.59%
Nov 4, 2021	Q4	$0.35	-0.30%	$50.39	2	yes	yes	-1.31%	+0.97%
Aug 5, 2021	Q3	$0.35	0.17%	$53.90	1	yes	yes	-3.32%	-0.02%
May 6, 2021	Q2	$0.35	-0.40%	$56.85	1	yes	yes	-6.03%	-4.38%
Feb 4, 2021	Q1	$0.35	-0.12%	$57.68	1	yes	yes	-0.85%	+5.77%
Nov 5, 2020	Q4	$0.33	0.98%	$45.70	1	yes	yes	-2.52%	-0.92%
Aug 6, 2020	Q3	$0.33	-0.27%	$48.92	3	yes	yes	-2.49%	-0.06%
May 6, 2020	Q2	$0.33	0.49%	$58.75	1	yes	yes	-4.51%	-1.16%
Feb 6, 2020	Q1	$0.33	-0.06%	$67.34	1	yes	yes	-4.13%	+0.64%
Nov 6, 2019	Q4	$0.32	-0.10%	$57.55	1	yes	yes	-0.99%	+1.14%

Ex-date Aug 7, 2024Q3
Dividend
$0.13
Gap %
0.45%
Pre-ex close
$19.83
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.99%
P&L 5d %
+1.08%
Ex-date May 6, 2024Q2
Dividend
$0.13
Gap %
0.71%
Pre-ex close
$30.90
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.79%
P&L 5d %
-0.86%
Ex-date Feb 6, 2024Q1
Dividend
$0.13
Gap %
-0.16%
Pre-ex close
$42.77
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.47%
P&L 5d %
+1.20%
Ex-date Nov 6, 2023Q4
Dividend
$0.13
Gap %
-0.31%
Pre-ex close
$38.14
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.02%
P&L 5d %
+0.56%
Ex-date Aug 4, 2023Q3
Dividend
$0.13
Gap %
-1.12%
Pre-ex close
$34.87
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-7.23%
P&L 5d %
+0.42%
Ex-date May 4, 2023Q2
Dividend
$0.13
Gap %
-0.69%
Pre-ex close
$30.65
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-6.43%
P&L 5d %
-5.43%
Ex-date Feb 6, 2023Q1
Dividend
$0.36
Gap %
-2.54%
Pre-ex close
$30.32
High touch (td)
29
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-9.83%
P&L 5d %
-4.63%
Ex-date Nov 4, 2022Q4
Dividend
$0.36
Gap %
0.66%
Pre-ex close
$27.39
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
0.07%
P&L 5d %
+12.43%
Ex-date Aug 4, 2022Q3
Dividend
$0.36
Gap %
-1.40%
Pre-ex close
$36.52
High touch (td)
9
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-5.80%
P&L 5d %
-1.55%
Ex-date May 5, 2022Q2
Dividend
$0.36
Gap %
-2.02%
Pre-ex close
$46.54
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-9.73%
P&L 5d %
-7.17%
Ex-date Feb 4, 2022Q1
Dividend
$0.36
Gap %
-0.87%
Pre-ex close
$48.28
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.42%
P&L 5d %
-0.59%
Ex-date Nov 4, 2021Q4
Dividend
$0.35
Gap %
-0.30%
Pre-ex close
$50.39
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.31%
P&L 5d %
+0.97%
Ex-date Aug 5, 2021Q3
Dividend
$0.35
Gap %
0.17%
Pre-ex close
$53.90
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.32%
P&L 5d %
-0.02%
Ex-date May 6, 2021Q2
Dividend
$0.35
Gap %
-0.40%
Pre-ex close
$56.85
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-6.03%
P&L 5d %
-4.38%
Ex-date Feb 4, 2021Q1
Dividend
$0.35
Gap %
-0.12%
Pre-ex close
$57.68
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.85%
P&L 5d %
+5.77%
Ex-date Nov 5, 2020Q4
Dividend
$0.33
Gap %
0.98%
Pre-ex close
$45.70
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.52%
P&L 5d %
-0.92%
Ex-date Aug 6, 2020Q3
Dividend
$0.33
Gap %
-0.27%
Pre-ex close
$48.92
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.49%
P&L 5d %
-0.06%
Ex-date May 6, 2020Q2
Dividend
$0.33
Gap %
0.49%
Pre-ex close
$58.75
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.51%
P&L 5d %
-1.16%
Ex-date Feb 6, 2020Q1
Dividend
$0.33
Gap %
-0.06%
Pre-ex close
$67.34
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.13%
P&L 5d %
+0.64%
Ex-date Nov 6, 2019Q4
Dividend
$0.32
Gap %
-0.10%
Pre-ex close
$57.55
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.99%
P&L 5d %
+1.14%

INTC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution

20 events analyzedHigh touched pre-ex within 5 trading days: 85% (17 events)

≤ 1 day
1470%
2–3 days
315%
4–5 days
00%
6–10 days
15%
11–30 days
15%
30+
15%

70% within 1d · 85% within 5d · 95% within 30d

INTC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield

Pre-filled with INTC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.

INTC dividend ($)INTC price ($)SharesHold (days)Tax %?Slippage % per leg

Slippage preset

Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.

Display

Gross dividend: $26.00
After-tax dividend: $16.90
Slippage round-trip: -$3.97
Net if price returns to pre-ex: +$12.93
Required recovery to break even: 0.00%
Per-event after-tax yield: +0.33%
Annual if all succeed: ~16.4%

Scenariosbase rate 93%

Best (limit fills)+$12.93

Average (base rate)+$11.08

Worst (no recovery)$13.07

Open in full calculator →

INTC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator

Replay every historical INTC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.

Limit window:Quarter:

Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).

Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).

Avg P&L per trade(20 events)-0.16%

Win rate (20 trades)

85%

Cumulative P&L

-3.30%Sum of per-event % (not compounded)

Buy & hold (same sample)

-57.27%Span: Nov 6, 2019 → Aug 7, 2024 · long-horizon total return vs repeating capture cycles

Best event

Nov 4, 2022+1.33%

Worst event

May 5, 2022-7.17%

Cumulative P&L (equity curve)

Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.

Nov 6, 2019Aug 7, 2024

Per-event P&L distribution

20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).

<-3%

-3..-1%

-1..0%

0..1%

1..3%

>3%

Scenario P&L by event · INTC (20)

Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.

Ex-date	P&L
Nov 6, 2019	+0.55%
Feb 6, 2020	+0.49%
May 6, 2020	+0.56%
Aug 6, 2020	+0.67%
Nov 5, 2020	+0.72%
Feb 4, 2021	+0.60%
May 6, 2021	+0.61%
Aug 5, 2021	+0.64%
Nov 4, 2021	+0.69%
Feb 4, 2022	+0.76%
May 5, 2022	-7.17%
Aug 4, 2022	-1.55%
Nov 4, 2022	+1.33%
Feb 6, 2023	-4.63%
May 4, 2023	+0.41%
Aug 4, 2023	+0.36%
Nov 6, 2023	+0.33%
Feb 6, 2024	+0.29%
May 6, 2024	+0.40%
Aug 7, 2024	+0.63%

Looking for full price seasonality? See INTC seasonality →

Frequently asked questions

What is the dividend capture success rate for INTC?: Across the last 14 ex-dividend events for Intel (INTC), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 93% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take INTC to recover its dividend gap?: Historically, INTC touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 29 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on INTC large enough to capture?: INTC has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.19 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does INTC compare to its sector for dividend capture?: Within Technology, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. INTC sits at 93% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does INTC dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?: A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?: Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?: Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.