INTC dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 92% /30d touch rate over 13 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Intel (INTC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 92% of the last 13 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.19), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, INTC sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
Touch rate (30d)
92%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.19
TL;DR over the most recent 13 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 92% | -3pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.19 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.57% | -0.18pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.55% | +1.48pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Intel (INTC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.13 | 0.45% | $19.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.99% | +1.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | 0.71% | $30.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.79% | -0.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -0.16% | $42.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +1.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -0.31% | $38.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.02% | +0.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | -1.12% | $34.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.23% | +0.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | -0.69% | $30.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.43% | -5.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | -2.54% | $30.32 | 29 | no | yes | -9.83% | -4.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | 0.66% | $27.39 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.07% | +12.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -1.40% | $36.52 | 9 | no | yes | -5.81% | -1.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | -2.02% | $46.54 | >30 | no | no | -9.73% | -7.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | -0.87% | $48.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.42% | -0.59% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.30% | $50.39 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.31% | +0.97% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | 0.17% | $53.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.32% | -0.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.40% | $56.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.03% | -4.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -0.12% | $57.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.85% | +5.77% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | 0.98% | $45.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.52% | -0.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | -0.27% | $48.92 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.49% | -0.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | 0.49% | $58.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.51% | -1.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | -0.06% | $67.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.13% | +0.64% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -0.10% | $57.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.99% | +1.14% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with INTC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical INTC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.16%
Win rate (20 trades)
85%
Cumulative P&L
-3.30%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-57.27%
Best event
+1.33%
Worst event
-7.17%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · INTC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.55% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.76% | |
| -7.17% | |
| -1.55% | |
| +1.33% | |
| -4.63% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.63% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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