Kinder Morgan (KMI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 3 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.66), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KMI sits noticeably below the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 4, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 80%-15pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 3d+2.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.66+0.34 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 80% | -15pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 3d | +2.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.66 | +0.34 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.50% | -0.69pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 53% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.24% | +0.94pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
| Dividend | $0.30 |
| Per-event yield | 0.91% |
| Annualized yield | 3.62% |
| Previously paid | May 4, 2026 ($0.30) |
| Last record date | May 4, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
KMI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Kinder Morgan (KMI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.55% | $32.53 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.35% | — | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -2.00% | $30.49 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.41% | +2.60% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -0.80% | $26.19 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.25% | +4.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -1.43% | $28.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.21% | -3.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -2.54% | $27.21 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.63% | +2.58% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -2.33% | $27.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.91% | -0.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -0.85% | $24.84 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.50% | +7.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.87% | $21.72 | >30 | no | no | -9.39% | -2.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -1.50% | $18.68 | 6 | no | yes | -2.94% | +1.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -1.84% | $17.37 | 16 | no | yes | -4.89% | -2.29% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -1.41% | $16.37 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.81% | +3.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.52% | $17.80 | 11 | no | yes | -3.93% | -0.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -1.62% | $17.32 | 29 | no | yes | -5.37% | +0.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -2.20% | $18.66 | >30 | no | no | -3.80% | -1.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -0.89% | $17.99 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.72% | +2.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -0.61% | $18.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.43% | -1.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -1.97% | $18.81 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.16% | +4.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | -1.60% | $17.48 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.55% | +0.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | -1.73% | $17.35 | >30 | no | no | -4.55% | -0.75% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -1.73% | $17.90 | >30 | no | no | -5.47% | -2.85% |
- —
- +2.60%
- +4.44%
- -3.42%
- +2.58%
- -0.45%
- +7.48%
- -2.91%
- +1.16%
- -2.29%
- +3.56%
- -0.88%
- +0.01%
- -1.14%
- +2.55%
- -1.62%
- +4.08%
- +0.80%
- -0.75%
- -2.85%
KMI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 3 | 15% | |
| 2–3 days | 7 | 35% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
KMI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with KMI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $60.00
- After-tax dividend
- $39.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$6.51
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$32.49
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.50%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~25.2%
KMI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical KMI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KMI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -2.85% | |
| -0.75% | |
| +1.54% | |
| +1.48% | |
| +1.54% | |
| +1.55% | |
| -1.14% | |
| +0.01% | |
| -0.88% | |
| +1.73% | |
| -2.29% | |
| +1.16% | |
| -2.91% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +1.07% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.92% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.