MOS dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Mosaic (MOS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.18), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MOS sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 20, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.18
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.18 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.10% | +0.27pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -8.12% | -3.18pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.22
Per-event yield
1.01%
Annualized yield
4.01%
Previously paid
May 21, 2026 ($0.22)
Last record date
May 21, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 2, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Mosaic (MOS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.22 | -1.19% | $21.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +10.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.23% | $26.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.34% | +6.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.74% | $24.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.68% | +4.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -0.03% | $32.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.11% | +5.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.08% | $36.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.99% | -5.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.79% | $24.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.79% | +4.77% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.94% | $26.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.28% | +0.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.04% | $27.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.84% | -7.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | -0.17% | $29.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.48% | -4.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | 0.70% | $31.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +2.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | 0.23% | $35.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +4.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -1.06% | $39.44 | 8 | no | yes | -7.76% | -5.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -1.74% | $33.35 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.73% | +9.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 2.42% | $47.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.49% | -4.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.23% | $53.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.56% | +2.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 1.04% | $50.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.01% | -6.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -1.83% | $57.34 | >30 | no | no | -10.13% | -5.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -1.36% | $62.65 | >30 | no | no | -19.20% | -9.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.11 | 1.21% | $51.87 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.96% | +11.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.08 | 2.83% | $34.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +5.48% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with MOS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MOS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.44%
Win rate (20 trades)
85%
Cumulative P&L
-8.89%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-24.64%
Best event
+1.01%
Worst event
-9.10%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MOS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.22% | |
| +0.22% | |
| -9.10% | |
| -5.28% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -5.20% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +1.01% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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