Mosaic (MOS) Dividend Capture: 0.84% per event (3.8% annualized)
MOS
Mosaic (MOS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MOS sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 21, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.22.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.17in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.17in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.06%+0.32pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 55%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -8.12%-3.48pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 8
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Per-event yield
- 0.84%
- Annualized yield
- 3.78%
- Previously paid
- Mar 9, 2026 ($0.22)
- Last record date
- Mar 9, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 19, 2026
How MOS ranks in Basic Materials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (28 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#17of 28
Beats ~39% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 28
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#17of 28
Beats ~39% of peers on this metric
MOS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Mosaic (MOS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.23% | $26.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.34% | +6.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.74% | $24.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.68% | +4.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -0.03% | $32.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.11% | +5.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.08% | $36.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.99% | -5.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.79% | $24.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.79% | +4.77% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.94% | $26.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.28% | +0.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.04% | $27.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.84% | -7.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | -0.17% | $29.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.48% | -4.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | 0.70% | $31.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +2.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | 0.23% | $35.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +4.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -1.06% | $39.44 | 8 | no | yes | -7.76% | -5.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -1.74% | $33.35 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.73% | +9.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 2.42% | $47.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.49% | -4.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.23% | $53.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.56% | +2.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 1.04% | $50.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.01% | -6.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -1.83% | $57.34 | >30 | no | no | -10.13% | -5.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -1.36% | $62.65 | >30 | no | no | -19.20% | -9.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.11 | 1.21% | $51.87 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.96% | +11.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.07 | 2.83% | $34.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +5.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.07 | -0.47% | $32.18 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.97% | -1.66% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- -0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $26.31
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.34%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.01%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- -0.74%
- Pre-ex close
- $24.21
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.68%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.96%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- -0.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $32.45
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.11%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.61%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- -0.08%
- Pre-ex close
- $36.82
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.99%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.46%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- -0.79%
- Pre-ex close
- $24.13
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.79%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.77%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.94%
- Pre-ex close
- $26.72
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.28%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.56%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.04%
- Pre-ex close
- $27.36
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -11.84%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.20%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $29.14
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.48%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.63%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- 0.70%
- Pre-ex close
- $31.24
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.58%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.94%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- 0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $35.15
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.68%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.30%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -1.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $39.44
- High touch (td)
- 8
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.76%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.20%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -1.74%
- Pre-ex close
- $33.35
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.73%
- P&L 5d %
- +9.39%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- 2.42%
- Pre-ex close
- $47.58
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -13.49%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.12%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $53.19
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -13.56%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.54%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 1.04%
- Pre-ex close
- $50.73
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.01%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.41%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $57.34
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -10.13%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.28%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.36%
- Pre-ex close
- $62.65
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -19.20%
- P&L 5d %
- -9.10%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.11
- Gap %
- 1.21%
- Pre-ex close
- $51.87
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.96%
- P&L 5d %
- +11.49%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.07
- Gap %
- 2.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $34.22
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.84%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.48%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.07
- Gap %
- -0.47%
- Pre-ex close
- $32.18
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.97%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.66%
MOS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1575%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+210%
75% within 1d · 85% within 5d · 90% within 30d
MOS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MOS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $44.00
- After-tax dividend
- $28.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$5.26
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$23.34
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.44%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~22.4%
MOS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MOS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MOS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.23% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.22% | |
| -9.10% | |
| -5.28% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -5.20% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.84% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See MOS seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for MOS?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Mosaic (MOS), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take MOS to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, MOS touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 8 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on MOS large enough to capture?
MOS has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.17 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for MOS?
The next ex-dividend date for Mosaic (MOS) is May 21, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does MOS compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Basic Materials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. MOS sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does MOS dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.