Middlesex Water (MSEX) Dividend Capture: 0.65% per event (2.8% annualized)
MSEX
Middlesex Water (MSEX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.15), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MSEX sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 15, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.36.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.15-0.30 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.15-0.30 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- 0.11%+0.81pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 70%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.17%+0.59pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 14
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.36
- Per-event yield
- 0.65%
- Annualized yield
- 2.79%
- Previously paid
- Feb 17, 2026 ($0.36)
- Last record date
- Feb 17, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 2, 2026
How MSEX ranks in Utilities
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (45 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#1of 45
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 45
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#42of 45
Beats ~7% of peers on this metric
MSEX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Middlesex Water (MSEX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.36 | 0.27% | $55.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.21% | -0.99% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -0.99% | $52.50 | 14 | no | yes | -8.21% | -4.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.26% | $53.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.19% | +3.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | 0.58% | $55.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.16% | +4.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | -0.51% | $50.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +4.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | 0.36% | $65.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.27% | +1.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | 0.38% | $61.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.30% | -2.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | 0.41% | $57.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.33% | +0.79% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | 0.77% | $54.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.49% | -4.60% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -0.27% | $66.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.02% | -1.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.31 | 0.14% | $80.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | -2.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.31 | -0.69% | $74.33 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.17% | +3.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.31 | 0.00% | $84.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.07% | +0.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.31 | 0.49% | $89.41 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.06% | +5.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | 0.58% | $92.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.16% | +1.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.26% | $88.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +0.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | 0.34% | $95.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +1.53% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | 0.20% | $105.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.22% | +5.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | 0.24% | $105.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +0.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | 0.34% | $77.58 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.34% | +4.33% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.36
- Gap %
- 0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $55.39
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.21%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.99%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.36
- Gap %
- -0.99%
- Pre-ex close
- $52.50
- High touch (td)
- 14
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.21%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.32%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- -0.26%
- Pre-ex close
- $53.03
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.19%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.53%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- 0.58%
- Pre-ex close
- $55.17
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.16%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.24%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- -0.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $50.50
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.66%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.89%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- 0.36%
- Pre-ex close
- $65.99
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.27%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.29%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- 0.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $61.26
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.30%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.47%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- 0.41%
- Pre-ex close
- $57.89
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -12.33%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.79%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- 0.77%
- Pre-ex close
- $54.29
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.49%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.60%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- -0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $66.50
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.02%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.27%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.31
- Gap %
- 0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $80.55
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.43%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.83%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.31
- Gap %
- -0.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $74.33
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.17%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.21%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.31
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $84.99
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.07%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.80%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.31
- Gap %
- 0.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $89.41
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.06%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.34%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 0.58%
- Pre-ex close
- $92.95
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.16%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.85%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- -0.26%
- Pre-ex close
- $88.63
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.87%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.80%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 0.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $95.67
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.14%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.53%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 0.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $105.62
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.22%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.45%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.27
- Gap %
- 0.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $105.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.32%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.91%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.27
- Gap %
- 0.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $77.58
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.34%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.33%
MSEX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1890%
- 2–3 days00%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+00%
90% within 1d · 95% within 5d · 100% within 30d
MSEX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MSEX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $72.00
- After-tax dividend
- $46.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$11.08
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$35.72
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.32%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.3%
MSEX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MSEX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MSEX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.35% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -4.32% | |
| +0.65% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See MSEX seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for MSEX?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Middlesex Water (MSEX), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take MSEX to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, MSEX touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 14 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on MSEX large enough to capture?
MSEX has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.15 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for MSEX?
The next ex-dividend date for Middlesex Water (MSEX) is May 15, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does MSEX compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Utilities, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. MSEX sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does MSEX dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.