MSEX dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Middlesex Water (MSEX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.16), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MSEX sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 17, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.36.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.16
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.16 | -0.30 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.03% | +0.72pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.20% | +0.55pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.36
Per-event yield
0.69%
Annualized yield
2.53%
Previously paid
May 15, 2026 ($0.36)
Last record date
May 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Middlesex Water (MSEX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.36 | -1.14% | $51.92 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.24% | +1.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | 0.27% | $55.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.21% | -0.99% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -0.99% | $52.50 | 14 | no | yes | -8.21% | -4.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.26% | $53.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.19% | +3.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | 0.58% | $55.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.16% | +4.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | -0.51% | $50.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +4.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | 0.36% | $65.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.27% | +1.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | 0.38% | $61.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.30% | -2.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | 0.41% | $57.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.33% | +0.79% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | 0.77% | $54.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.49% | -4.60% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -0.27% | $66.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.02% | -1.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.31 | 0.14% | $80.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | -2.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.31 | -0.69% | $74.33 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.18% | +3.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.31 | 0.00% | $84.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.07% | +0.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.31 | 0.49% | $89.41 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.06% | +5.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | 0.58% | $92.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.16% | +1.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.26% | $88.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +0.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | 0.34% | $95.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +1.53% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | 0.20% | $105.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.22% | +5.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | 0.24% | $105.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +0.91% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with MSEX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MSEX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.23%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+4.65%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-46.30%
Best event
+0.69%
Worst event
-4.32%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MSEX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.26% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -4.32% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.69% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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