M&T Bank (MTB) Dividend Capture: 0.69% per event (2.8% annualized)
MTB
M&T Bank (MTB) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.36), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MTB sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 1, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.50.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.36+0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.36+0.06 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.82%-0.25pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 45%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -6.00%-1.61pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 3
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.50
- Per-event yield
- 0.69%
- Annualized yield
- 2.78%
- Previously paid
- Mar 2, 2026 ($1.50)
- Last record date
- Mar 2, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 31, 2026
How MTB ranks in Financial Services
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (101 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#31of 101
Beats ~69% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 101
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#29of 101
Beats ~71% of peers on this metric
MTB Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for M&T Bank (MTB). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.50 | -2.30% | $216.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.72% | -3.14% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -0.93% | $190.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +3.77% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -1.84% | $201.66 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.00% | -0.18% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | -1.06% | $182.64 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.80% | +1.64% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | -0.16% | $191.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.92% | -8.67% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | -0.19% | $219.99 | >30 | no | no | -10.32% | -5.41% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | 0.03% | $172.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.22% | -2.10% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | -0.13% | $151.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.80% | -4.22% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | -1.57% | $139.74 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.01% | +3.08% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -0.55% | $127.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +4.97% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | -0.66% | $126.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.81% | -2.65% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | -1.93% | $125.23 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.77% | +4.82% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | -0.56% | $151.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -20.43% | -12.09% | |
| Q4 | $1.20 | -1.84% | $170.92 | 2 | yes | yes | -15.32% | -12.73% | |
| Q3 | $1.20 | -0.21% | $182.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.96% | +3.46% | |
| Q2 | $1.20 | -2.38% | $180.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.97% | +0.56% | |
| Q1 | $1.20 | 0.23% | $174.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.27% | +1.69% | |
| Q4 | $1.20 | 0.79% | $153.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.53% | -0.72% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | -0.63% | $138.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.47% | -0.44% | |
| Q2 | $1.10 | -0.57% | $160.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.15% | +0.34% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.50
- Gap %
- -2.30%
- Pre-ex close
- $216.98
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.72%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.14%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.50
- Gap %
- -0.93%
- Pre-ex close
- $190.22
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.27%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.77%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.50
- Gap %
- -1.84%
- Pre-ex close
- $201.66
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.00%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.18%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -1.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $182.64
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.80%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.64%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -0.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $191.72
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -11.92%
- P&L 5d %
- -8.67%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -0.19%
- Pre-ex close
- $219.99
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -10.32%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.41%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- 0.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $172.11
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.22%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.10%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -0.13%
- Pre-ex close
- $151.60
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.80%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.22%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.30
- Gap %
- -1.57%
- Pre-ex close
- $139.74
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.01%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.08%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.30
- Gap %
- -0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $127.73
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.66%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.97%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.30
- Gap %
- -0.66%
- Pre-ex close
- $126.43
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.81%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.65%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.30
- Gap %
- -1.93%
- Pre-ex close
- $125.23
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.77%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.82%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.30
- Gap %
- -0.56%
- Pre-ex close
- $151.32
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -20.43%
- P&L 5d %
- -12.09%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.20
- Gap %
- -1.84%
- Pre-ex close
- $170.92
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -15.32%
- P&L 5d %
- -12.73%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.20
- Gap %
- -0.21%
- Pre-ex close
- $182.78
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.96%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.46%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.20
- Gap %
- -2.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $180.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.97%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.56%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.20
- Gap %
- 0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $174.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.27%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.69%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.20
- Gap %
- 0.79%
- Pre-ex close
- $153.99
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.53%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.72%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.10
- Gap %
- -0.63%
- Pre-ex close
- $138.97
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.47%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.44%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.10
- Gap %
- -0.57%
- Pre-ex close
- $160.28
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.15%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.34%
MTB Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1365%
- 2–3 days630%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+15%
65% within 1d · 95% within 5d · 95% within 30d
MTB Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MTB's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $300.00
- After-tax dividend
- $195.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$43.40
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$151.60
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.35%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~17.6%
MTB Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MTB ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MTB (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.69% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.78% | |
| -5.41% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.69% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See MTB seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for MTB?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for M&T Bank (MTB), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take MTB to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, MTB touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 3 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on MTB large enough to capture?
MTB has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.36 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for MTB?
The next ex-dividend date for M&T Bank (MTB) is Jun 1, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does MTB compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Financial Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. MTB sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does MTB dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.