M&T Bank (MTB) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.37), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MTB sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.37+0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.37 | +0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.84% | -0.26pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -6.00% | -1.62pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $1.50 |
| Per-event yield | 0.69% |
| Annualized yield | 2.84% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($1.50) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
MTB Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for M&T Bank (MTB). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.50 | -2.30% | $216.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.72% | -3.14% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -0.93% | $190.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +3.77% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -1.84% | $201.66 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.00% | -0.18% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | -1.06% | $182.64 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.80% | +1.64% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | -0.16% | $191.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.92% | -8.67% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | -0.19% | $219.99 | >30 | no | no | -10.32% | -5.41% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | 0.03% | $172.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.22% | -2.10% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | -0.13% | $151.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.80% | -4.22% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | -1.57% | $139.74 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.01% | +3.08% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -0.55% | $127.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +4.97% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | -0.66% | $126.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.81% | -2.65% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | -1.93% | $125.23 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.77% | +4.82% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | -0.56% | $151.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -20.43% | -12.09% | |
| Q4 | $1.20 | -1.84% | $170.92 | 2 | yes | yes | -15.32% | -12.73% | |
| Q3 | $1.20 | -0.21% | $182.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.96% | +3.46% | |
| Q2 | $1.20 | -2.38% | $180.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.97% | +0.56% | |
| Q1 | $1.20 | 0.23% | $174.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.27% | +1.69% | |
| Q4 | $1.20 | 0.79% | $153.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.53% | -0.72% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | -0.63% | $138.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.47% | -0.44% | |
| Q2 | $1.10 | -0.57% | $160.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.15% | +0.34% |
- -3.14%
- +3.77%
- -0.18%
- +1.64%
- -8.67%
- -5.41%
- -2.10%
- -4.22%
- +3.08%
- +4.97%
- -2.65%
- +4.82%
- -12.09%
- -12.73%
- +3.46%
- +0.56%
- +1.69%
- -0.72%
- -0.44%
- +0.34%
MTB Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
MTB Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MTB's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $300.00
- After-tax dividend
- $195.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$43.40
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$151.60
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.35%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~17.6%
MTB Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MTB ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MTB (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.69% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +1.04% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.78% | |
| -5.41% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.69% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.