Occidental Petroleum (OXY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.13), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, OXY sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 9, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.13-0.19 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.13 | -0.19 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.50% | +0.31pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.76% | +0.43pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.26 |
| Per-event yield | 0.47% |
| Annualized yield | 1.75% |
| Previously paid | Mar 10, 2026 ($0.26) |
| Last record date | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
OXY Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Occidental Petroleum (OXY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.26 | -3.22% | $55.02 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.40% | +5.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.24 | -0.14% | $41.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.62% | -1.64% | |
| Q3 | $0.24 | -0.02% | $45.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.35% | +5.07% | |
| Q2 | $0.24 | 0.46% | $43.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.50% | +6.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.24 | -0.30% | $47.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.83% | +0.55% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.04% | $48.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.29% | -3.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | 0.21% | $52.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.35% | +0.19% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | 0.89% | $59.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.59% | +1.58% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.62% | $61.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +2.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | 0.34% | $56.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.41% | +4.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | -0.41% | $65.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.07% | +2.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -0.33% | $60.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.88% | -2.40% | |
| Q1 | $0.18 | 0.06% | $62.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.68% | -4.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -0.20% | $63.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.87% | -1.65% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | 1.45% | $64.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.43% | -0.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | -1.49% | $69.03 | >30 | no | no | -21.34% | -17.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -5.07% | $54.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.54% | -2.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.01 | -0.58% | $30.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.34% | -7.73% | |
| Q3 | $0.01 | -0.48% | $24.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.09% | +9.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.01 | 1.03% | $29.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.69% | +4.66% |
- +5.40%
- -1.64%
- +5.07%
- +6.89%
- +0.55%
- -3.98%
- +0.19%
- +1.58%
- +2.80%
- +4.36%
- +2.91%
- -2.40%
- -4.71%
- -1.65%
- -0.11%
- -17.51%
- -2.71%
- -7.73%
- +9.76%
- +4.66%
OXY Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
OXY Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with OXY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $52.00
- After-tax dividend
- $33.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$11.00
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$22.80
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.21%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~10.4%
OXY Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical OXY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · OXY (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.03% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.03% | |
| +0.24% | |
| -17.51% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.47% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.