PHM dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
PulteGroup (PHM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.08), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PHM sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 15, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.08
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.08 | -0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.00% | +0.41pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.96% | -0.46pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
Dividend
$0.26
Per-event yield
0.21%
Annualized yield
0.80%
Previously paid
Jun 16, 2026 ($0.26)
Last record date
Jun 16, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 2, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for PulteGroup (PHM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.26 | 0.56% | $122.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +10.69% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | 0.22% | $122.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.29% | -3.13% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 0.17% | $126.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.04% | -7.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | 0.01% | $134.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.94% | -3.39% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | 0.12% | $102.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.05% | +1.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.22% | $103.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.15% | +1.59% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.09% | $117.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.40% | -5.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.67% | $140.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.95% | +2.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -1.04% | $114.41 | 16 | no | yes | -10.19% | -3.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | 0.07% | $114.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.98% | +1.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.20% | $102.49 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +0.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.16 | -2.13% | $78.58 | >30 | no | no | -7.41% | -5.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.16 | -0.51% | $73.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.31% | +3.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.16 | 0.00% | $55.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +1.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.16 | 5.22% | $44.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 0.33% | $39.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.88% | -0.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -0.91% | $44.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -20.51% | -17.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.02% | $46.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.29% | +0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.44% | $54.99 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.51% | -3.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.14 | -0.91% | $48.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.81% | -1.22% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with PHM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical PHM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.25%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-4.96%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+166.69%
Best event
+0.38%
Worst event
-5.70%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PHM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.29% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.22% | |
| -5.70% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -3.64% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.21% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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