PulteGroup (PHM) Dividend Capture: 0.21% per event (0.8% annualized)
PHM
PulteGroup (PHM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PHM sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 16, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.26.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.09-0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.09-0.13 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.06%+0.35pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 45%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -5.18%-0.50pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 16
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.26
- Per-event yield
- 0.21%
- Annualized yield
- 0.85%
- Previously paid
- Mar 17, 2026 ($0.26)
- Last record date
- Mar 17, 2026
- Last payment date
- Apr 2, 2026
How PHM ranks in Consumer Cyclical
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (44 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#18of 44
Beats ~59% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#40of 44
Beats ~9% of peers on this metric
PHM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for PulteGroup (PHM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.26 | 0.22% | $122.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.29% | -3.13% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 0.17% | $126.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.04% | -7.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | 0.01% | $134.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.94% | -3.39% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | 0.12% | $102.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.05% | +1.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.22% | $103.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.15% | +1.59% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.09% | $117.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.40% | -5.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.67% | $140.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.95% | +2.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -1.04% | $114.41 | 16 | no | yes | -10.19% | -3.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | 0.07% | $114.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.98% | +1.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.20% | $102.49 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +0.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.16 | -2.13% | $78.58 | >30 | no | no | -7.41% | -5.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.16 | -0.51% | $73.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.31% | +3.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.16 | 0.00% | $55.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +1.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.16 | 5.22% | $44.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 0.33% | $39.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.88% | -0.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -0.91% | $44.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -20.51% | -17.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.02% | $46.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.29% | +0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.44% | $54.99 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.51% | -3.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.14 | -0.91% | $48.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.81% | -1.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.14 | -0.59% | $55.84 | 14 | no | yes | -5.37% | -3.55% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.26
- Gap %
- 0.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $122.17
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.29%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.13%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.26
- Gap %
- 0.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $126.51
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.04%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.01%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- 0.01%
- Pre-ex close
- $134.84
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.94%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.39%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- 0.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $102.42
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.05%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.33%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- -0.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $103.89
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.15%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.59%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- -0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $117.04
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.40%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.19%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- 0.67%
- Pre-ex close
- $140.06
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.95%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.43%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -1.04%
- Pre-ex close
- $114.41
- High touch (td)
- 16
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.19%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.64%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- 0.07%
- Pre-ex close
- $114.28
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.98%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.73%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $102.49
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.04%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.87%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.16
- Gap %
- -2.13%
- Pre-ex close
- $78.58
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -7.41%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.70%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.16
- Gap %
- -0.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $73.96
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.31%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.02%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.16
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $55.96
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.86%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.54%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.16
- Gap %
- 5.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $44.82
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.94%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.27%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.33%
- Pre-ex close
- $39.98
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.88%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.98%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.91%
- Pre-ex close
- $44.07
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -20.51%
- P&L 5d %
- -17.36%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.02%
- Pre-ex close
- $46.39
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.29%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.63%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.44%
- Pre-ex close
- $54.99
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.51%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.36%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.14
- Gap %
- -0.91%
- Pre-ex close
- $48.22
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.81%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.22%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.14
- Gap %
- -0.59%
- Pre-ex close
- $55.84
- High touch (td)
- 14
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.37%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.55%
PHM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1575%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days210%
- 30+15%
75% within 1d · 85% within 5d · 95% within 30d
PHM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PHM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $52.00
- After-tax dividend
- $33.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$24.43
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$9.37
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.04%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~1.9%
PHM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PHM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PHM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -3.55% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.22% | |
| -5.70% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -3.64% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.21% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See PHM seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for PHM?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for PulteGroup (PHM), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take PHM to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, PHM touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 16 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on PHM large enough to capture?
PHM has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.09 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for PHM?
The next ex-dividend date for PulteGroup (PHM) is Jun 16, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does PHM compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Cyclical, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. PHM sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does PHM dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.