Prologis (PLD) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 79% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.32), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PLD sits noticeably below the Real Estate sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 15, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 79%-16pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.32-0.12 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 79% | -16pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.32 | -0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.98% | -0.11pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 20% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.81% | -0.10pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $1.07 |
| Per-event yield | 0.80% |
| Annualized yield | 2.85% |
| Previously paid | Mar 17, 2026 ($1.07) |
| Last record date | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
PLD Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Prologis (PLD). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.07 | 0.34% | $134.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.06% | -1.98% | |
| Q4 | $1.01 | -1.08% | $130.66 | 13 | no | yes | -2.86% | -1.44% | |
| Q3 | $1.01 | -0.35% | $114.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +1.03% | |
| Q2 | $1.01 | -1.29% | $106.82 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.15% | -0.96% | |
| Q1 | $1.01 | -0.51% | $114.44 | >30 | no | no | -5.69% | -3.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.96 | -0.75% | $111.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.28% | -5.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.96 | -0.12% | $129.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.00% | -1.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.96 | -1.60% | $112.29 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.41% | -1.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.96 | -2.25% | $130.75 | 11 | no | yes | -4.34% | -0.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.87 | -0.64% | $137.12 | >30 | no | no | -5.76% | -2.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.87 | -1.31% | $124.33 | >30 | no | no | -10.85% | -7.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.87 | -1.46% | $122.27 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.57% | -3.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.87 | -2.03% | $120.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.65% | -4.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -2.82% | $118.59 | 15 | no | yes | -7.14% | -3.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.79 | -1.70% | $125.08 | >30 | no | no | -18.62% | -12.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.79 | 0.53% | $110.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.48% | +7.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | -0.54% | $154.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.61% | +1.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.63 | -0.53% | $159.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +1.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -0.47% | $133.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.04% | -2.87% | |
| Q2 | $0.63 | -0.66% | $126.16 | 19 | no | yes | -5.34% | -2.81% |
- -1.98%
- -1.44%
- +1.03%
- -0.96%
- -3.67%
- -5.43%
- -1.84%
- -1.34%
- -0.89%
- -2.81%
- -7.55%
- -3.68%
- -4.16%
- -3.52%
- -12.58%
- +7.56%
- +1.37%
- +1.85%
- -2.87%
- -2.81%
PLD Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
PLD Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PLD's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $214.00
- After-tax dividend
- $139.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$26.81
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$112.29
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.42%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~21.1%
PLD Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PLD ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PLD (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -2.81% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.71% | |
| -12.58% | |
| -3.52% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.71% | |
| -7.55% | |
| -2.81% | |
| -0.89% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -3.67% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.88% | |
| -1.44% | |
| +0.80% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.