Starbucks (SBUX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.22), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SBUX sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.22in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.22 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.59% | -0.11pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.30% | +1.38pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.62 |
| Per-event yield | 0.64% |
| Annualized yield | 2.31% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($0.62) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 27, 2026 |
SBUX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Starbucks (SBUX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.62 | -0.93% | $96.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.32% | -1.41% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | -0.96% | $86.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.74% | -0.54% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -0.55% | $93.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.05% | -4.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | -0.73% | $87.26 | 8 | no | yes | -5.44% | -2.58% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | -0.16% | $113.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.22% | +0.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -0.13% | $99.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.14% | +3.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -1.60% | $94.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.28% | -0.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.67% | $75.70 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.64% | +4.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.22% | $95.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.69% | -1.59% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | 0.00% | $104.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.22% | +3.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | 0.62% | $99.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.91% | -2.82% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | -0.50% | $106.97 | 6 | no | yes | -7.35% | +0.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.53 | -0.54% | $106.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.45% | +1.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.53 | -1.23% | $92.75 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +5.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | 0.52% | $86.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.49% | +2.95% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -1.30% | $70.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.38% | +3.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -1.72% | $97.13 | >30 | no | no | -10.17% | -3.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -1.07% | $114.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.82% | -0.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.04% | $116.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | -0.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -1.48% | $113.55 | 11 | no | yes | -4.11% | -3.02% |
- -1.41%
- -0.54%
- -4.37%
- -2.58%
- +0.71%
- +3.91%
- -0.31%
- +4.20%
- -1.59%
- +3.34%
- -2.82%
- +0.61%
- +1.67%
- +5.23%
- +2.95%
- +3.37%
- -3.70%
- -0.98%
- -0.22%
- -3.02%
SBUX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
SBUX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SBUX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $124.00
- After-tax dividend
- $80.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$19.35
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$61.25
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.32%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.0%
SBUX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SBUX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SBUX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -3.02% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -3.70% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.54% | |
| -2.58% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.64% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.