Starbucks (SBUX) Dividend Capture: 0.64% per event (2.4% annualized)
SBUX
Starbucks (SBUX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.22), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SBUX sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 15, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.62.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.22in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.22in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.63%-0.22pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 45%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.30%+1.38pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 11
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Per-event yield
- 0.64%
- Annualized yield
- 2.35%
- Previously paid
- Feb 13, 2026 ($0.62)
- Last record date
- Feb 13, 2026
- Last payment date
- Feb 27, 2026
How SBUX ranks in Consumer Cyclical
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (44 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#18of 44
Beats ~59% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#22of 44
Beats ~50% of peers on this metric
SBUX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Starbucks (SBUX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.62 | -0.93% | $96.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.32% | -1.41% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | -0.96% | $86.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.74% | -0.54% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -0.55% | $93.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.05% | -4.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | -0.73% | $87.26 | 8 | no | yes | -5.44% | -2.58% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | -0.16% | $113.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.22% | +0.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -0.13% | $99.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.14% | +3.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -1.60% | $94.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.28% | -0.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.67% | $75.70 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.64% | +4.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.22% | $95.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.69% | -1.59% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | 0.00% | $104.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.22% | +3.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | 0.62% | $99.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.91% | -2.82% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | -0.50% | $106.97 | 6 | no | yes | -7.35% | +0.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.53 | -0.54% | $106.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.45% | +1.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.53 | -1.23% | $92.75 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +5.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | 0.52% | $86.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.49% | +2.95% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -1.30% | $70.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.38% | +3.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -1.72% | $97.13 | >30 | no | no | -10.17% | -3.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -1.07% | $114.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.82% | -0.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.04% | $116.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | -0.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -1.48% | $113.55 | 11 | no | yes | -4.11% | -3.02% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Gap %
- -0.93%
- Pre-ex close
- $96.76
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.32%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.41%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Gap %
- -0.96%
- Pre-ex close
- $86.44
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.74%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.54%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.61
- Gap %
- -0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $93.06
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.05%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.37%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.61
- Gap %
- -0.73%
- Pre-ex close
- $87.26
- High touch (td)
- 8
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.44%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.58%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.61
- Gap %
- -0.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $113.00
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.22%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.71%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.61
- Gap %
- -0.13%
- Pre-ex close
- $99.23
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.14%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.91%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -1.60%
- Pre-ex close
- $94.88
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.28%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.31%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.67%
- Pre-ex close
- $75.70
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.64%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.20%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $95.31
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.69%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.59%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $104.30
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.22%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.34%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.53
- Gap %
- 0.62%
- Pre-ex close
- $99.92
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.91%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.82%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.53
- Gap %
- -0.50%
- Pre-ex close
- $106.97
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.35%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.61%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.53
- Gap %
- -0.54%
- Pre-ex close
- $106.30
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.45%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.67%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.53
- Gap %
- -1.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $92.75
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.52%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.23%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.49
- Gap %
- 0.52%
- Pre-ex close
- $86.49
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.49%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.95%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.49
- Gap %
- -1.30%
- Pre-ex close
- $70.06
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.38%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.37%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.49
- Gap %
- -1.72%
- Pre-ex close
- $97.13
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -10.17%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.70%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.49
- Gap %
- -1.07%
- Pre-ex close
- $114.13
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.82%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.98%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.45
- Gap %
- -0.04%
- Pre-ex close
- $116.39
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.39%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.22%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.45
- Gap %
- -1.48%
- Pre-ex close
- $113.55
- High touch (td)
- 11
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.11%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.02%
SBUX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1260%
- 2–3 days420%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days210%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+15%
60% within 1d · 80% within 5d · 95% within 30d
SBUX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SBUX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $124.00
- After-tax dividend
- $80.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$19.35
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$61.25
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.32%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.0%
SBUX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SBUX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SBUX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -3.02% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -3.70% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.54% | |
| -2.58% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.64% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See SBUX seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for SBUX?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Starbucks (SBUX), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take SBUX to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, SBUX touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 11 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on SBUX large enough to capture?
SBUX has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.22 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for SBUX?
The next ex-dividend date for Starbucks (SBUX) is May 15, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does SBUX compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Cyclical, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. SBUX sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does SBUX dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.