Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Dividend Capture: 0.22% per event (1.0% annualized)
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.11), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SHW sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 22, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.80.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.11-0.09 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.11-0.09 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.41%in line with sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 55%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.43%+1.21pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 6
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.80
- Per-event yield
- 0.22%
- Annualized yield
- 1.02%
- Previously paid
- Mar 2, 2026 ($0.80)
- Last record date
- Mar 2, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 13, 2026
How SHW ranks in Basic Materials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (28 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#17of 28
Beats ~39% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 28
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#24of 28
Beats ~14% of peers on this metric
SHW Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Sherwin-Williams (SHW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.80 | -1.95% | $362.59 | >30 | no | no | -12.45% | -7.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -0.49% | $338.84 | 6 | no | yes | -6.09% | -0.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.79 | 0.08% | $365.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +2.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.79 | -0.26% | $361.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.70% | -2.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | 0.55% | $362.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.37% | -1.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.71 | -0.71% | $388.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.43% | +0.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.71 | -0.16% | $356.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +0.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.13% | $316.37 | >30 | no | no | -6.51% | -3.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.71 | 0.04% | $320.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.26% | +4.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.09% | $264.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.09% | +4.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.05% | $273.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | -1.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.28% | $227.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | -0.23% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -1.82% | $223.05 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.05% | +2.64% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -1.11% | $240.81 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.80% | +3.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.26% | $251.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.89% | -2.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.74% | $259.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.65% | +4.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | 0.24% | $258.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.92% | +0.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | 0.07% | $333.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.05% | -2.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.79% | $301.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +0.57% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | -0.32% | $281.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.12% | +1.80% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.80
- Gap %
- -1.95%
- Pre-ex close
- $362.59
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -12.45%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.83%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- -0.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $338.84
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.09%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.29%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- 0.08%
- Pre-ex close
- $365.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.00%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.23%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- -0.26%
- Pre-ex close
- $361.45
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.70%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.25%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- 0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $362.27
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.37%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.02%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.71
- Gap %
- -0.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $388.46
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.43%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.14%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.71
- Gap %
- -0.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $356.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.33%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.83%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.71
- Gap %
- -0.13%
- Pre-ex close
- $316.37
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -6.51%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.97%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.71
- Gap %
- 0.04%
- Pre-ex close
- $320.62
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.26%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.78%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $264.79
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.09%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.40%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $273.07
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.20%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.18%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $227.63
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.91%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.23%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -1.82%
- Pre-ex close
- $223.05
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.05%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.64%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -1.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $240.81
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.80%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.87%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.26%
- Pre-ex close
- $251.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.89%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.52%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.74%
- Pre-ex close
- $259.66
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.65%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.97%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- 0.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $258.94
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.92%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.06%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- 0.07%
- Pre-ex close
- $333.16
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.05%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.79%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.79%
- Pre-ex close
- $301.11
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.05%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.57%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $281.27
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.12%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.80%
SHW Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1575%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+210%
75% within 1d · 85% within 5d · 90% within 30d
SHW Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SHW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $160.00
- After-tax dividend
- $104.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$72.52
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$31.48
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.04%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.2%
SHW Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SHW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SHW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.22% | |
| -3.97% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.22% | |
| -0.29% | |
| -7.83% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See SHW seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for SHW?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Sherwin-Williams (SHW), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take SHW to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, SHW touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 6 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on SHW large enough to capture?
SHW has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.11 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for SHW?
The next ex-dividend date for Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is May 22, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does SHW compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Basic Materials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. SHW sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does SHW dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.