Southern Company (SO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.51), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SO sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 17, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.51+0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.51 | +0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.72% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.27% | +1.57pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 7 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.76 |
| Per-event yield | 0.80% |
| Annualized yield | 3.18% |
| Previously paid | Feb 17, 2026 ($0.74) |
| Last record date | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 6, 2026 |
SO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Southern Company (SO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.74 | -0.11% | $94.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.35% | +1.69% | |
| Q4 | $0.74 | -0.22% | $90.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.75% | -0.89% | |
| Q3 | $0.74 | -0.52% | $94.07 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.13% | -0.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.74 | -0.17% | $88.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +2.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.72 | -0.79% | $85.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.26% | +5.83% | |
| Q4 | $0.72 | -1.06% | $87.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.24% | +1.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.72 | -0.61% | $87.36 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.84% | -0.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.72 | -0.89% | $79.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.45% | -1.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -1.26% | $66.83 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.54% | +0.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -0.40% | $70.27 | 6 | no | yes | -2.33% | +0.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.98% | $68.25 | 5 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +0.79% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.64% | $74.65 | >30 | no | no | -6.67% | -3.40% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -1.41% | $65.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.27% | -1.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -0.34% | $64.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.79% | +2.46% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -0.35% | $77.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.54% | +3.77% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | -0.24% | $74.08 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.21% | +0.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.66 | -1.53% | $64.79 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.66% | +0.99% | |
| Q4 | $0.66 | -1.36% | $63.05 | 7 | no | yes | -2.49% | +0.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | -0.87% | $65.72 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +3.44% | |
| Q2 | $0.66 | -0.87% | $65.73 | >30 | no | no | -4.12% | -1.05% |
- +1.69%
- -0.89%
- -0.21%
- +2.20%
- +5.83%
- +1.38%
- -0.17%
- -1.15%
- +0.18%
- +0.98%
- +0.79%
- -3.40%
- -1.23%
- +2.46%
- +3.77%
- +0.01%
- +0.99%
- +0.44%
- +3.44%
- -1.05%
SO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
SO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $152.00
- After-tax dividend
- $98.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$18.99
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$79.81
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.42%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~21.2%
SO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.05% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +1.03% | |
| -3.40% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.78% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.