Verisk Analytics (VRSK) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, VRSK sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.09-0.07 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.09 | -0.07 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.04% | +0.37pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.99% | +1.63pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 28 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.50 |
| Per-event yield | 0.25% |
| Annualized yield | 1.05% |
| Previously paid | Mar 13, 2026 ($0.50) |
| Last record date | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
VRSK Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Verisk Analytics (VRSK). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.50 | 0.66% | $198.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.85% | +2.13% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | 0.64% | $217.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.53% | +1.73% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.13% | $262.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.53% | -6.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -0.59% | $313.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.53% | -1.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | -0.16% | $289.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | -1.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.66% | $285.30 | 28 | no | yes | -4.23% | -2.82% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | 0.00% | $269.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.83% | -1.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.20% | $262.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.74% | +3.78% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | 0.59% | $236.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +0.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | 0.23% | $247.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.82% | -4.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.61% | $245.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.14% | -1.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.16% | $217.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.32% | +5.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | 0.17% | $180.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +3.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.31 | -0.07% | $184.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.67% | -4.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.31 | -0.05% | $186.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.46% | -3.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.31 | 0.15% | $161.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.48% | +3.05% | |
| Q1 | $0.31 | 0.37% | $182.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.08% | +15.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -0.68% | $228.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.28% | -2.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.01% | $205.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.66% | -0.87% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.21% | $172.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +1.74% |
- +2.13%
- +1.73%
- -6.70%
- -1.61%
- -1.34%
- -2.82%
- -1.53%
- +3.78%
- +0.02%
- -4.81%
- -1.75%
- +5.16%
- +3.03%
- -4.48%
- -3.02%
- +3.05%
- +15.71%
- -2.91%
- -0.87%
- +1.74%
VRSK Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 19 | 95% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
VRSK Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with VRSK's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $100.00
- After-tax dividend
- $65.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$39.61
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$25.39
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.06%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.2%
VRSK Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical VRSK ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · VRSK (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.17% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.14% | |
| -2.82% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.25% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.