Vistra (VST) Dividend Capture: 0.14% per event (0.6% annualized)
VST
Vistra (VST) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, VST sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 22, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.23.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.17-0.28 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.17-0.28 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- 0.06%+0.77pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -4.19%-0.43pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 20
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.23
- Per-event yield
- 0.14%
- Annualized yield
- 0.57%
- Previously paid
- Mar 20, 2026 ($0.23)
- Last record date
- Mar 20, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 31, 2026
How VST ranks in Utilities
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (45 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#12of 45
Beats ~73% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 45
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#41of 45
Beats ~9% of peers on this metric
VST Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Vistra (VST). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.54% | $167.37 | 20 | no | yes | -14.95% | -6.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 0.60% | $163.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | -0.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | 0.60% | $210.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.26% | -1.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.42% | $177.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +7.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -1.79% | $129.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.75% | -7.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -3.46% | $137.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.79% | +2.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | 7.54% | $92.74 | 1 | yes | yes | 5.52% | +27.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.15% | $84.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.83% | +2.48% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | 0.03% | $62.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +9.00% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.13% | $37.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +2.21% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.09% | $33.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.60% | -0.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.44% | $25.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +3.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | 0.16% | $25.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.21% | -6.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | -0.08% | $24.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.06% | -0.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | -1.09% | $25.62 | >30 | no | no | -18.34% | -13.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | 2.50% | $22.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.33% | +4.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -0.40% | $22.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.81% | +3.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.24% | $20.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.64% | +8.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.83% | $18.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.11% | -2.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -0.60% | $18.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.27% | -1.96% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.23
- Gap %
- -0.54%
- Pre-ex close
- $167.37
- High touch (td)
- 20
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -14.95%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.97%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.23
- Gap %
- 0.60%
- Pre-ex close
- $163.03
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.00%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.11%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.23
- Gap %
- 0.60%
- Pre-ex close
- $210.16
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.26%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.29%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.23
- Gap %
- -0.42%
- Pre-ex close
- $177.75
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.43%
- P&L 5d %
- +7.24%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- -1.79%
- Pre-ex close
- $129.85
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -13.75%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.94%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- -3.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $137.20
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.79%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.27%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- 7.54%
- Pre-ex close
- $92.74
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 5.52%
- P&L 5d %
- +27.17%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.22
- Gap %
- -0.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $84.04
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.83%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.48%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- 0.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $62.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.58%
- P&L 5d %
- +9.00%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.13%
- Pre-ex close
- $37.76
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.01%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.21%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $33.49
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.60%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.88%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.44%
- Pre-ex close
- $25.06
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.44%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.73%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- 0.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $25.10
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.21%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.23%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.19
- Gap %
- -0.08%
- Pre-ex close
- $24.07
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.06%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.78%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.18
- Gap %
- -1.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $25.62
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -18.34%
- P&L 5d %
- -13.33%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.18
- Gap %
- 2.50%
- Pre-ex close
- $22.42
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.33%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.49%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.17
- Gap %
- -0.40%
- Pre-ex close
- $22.41
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.81%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.88%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $20.77
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.64%
- P&L 5d %
- +8.23%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $18.00
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.11%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.33%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.60%
- Pre-ex close
- $18.39
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.27%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.96%
VST Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1890%
- 2–3 days00%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+15%
90% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 95% within 30d
VST Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with VST's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $46.00
- After-tax dividend
- $29.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$33.47
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-3.57
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.01%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.01%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-0.5%
VST Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical VST ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · VST (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.82% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -13.33% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.14% | |
| -6.97% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See VST seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for VST?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Vistra (VST), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take VST to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, VST touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 20 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on VST large enough to capture?
VST has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.17 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for VST?
The next ex-dividend date for Vistra (VST) is Jun 22, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does VST compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Utilities, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. VST sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does VST dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.