VST dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Vistra (VST) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.16), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, VST sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 21, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.23.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.16
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.16 | -0.30 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.08% | +0.76pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.19% | -0.45pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 20 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.23
Per-event yield
0.14%
Annualized yield
0.59%
Previously paid
Jun 22, 2026 ($0.23)
Last record date
Jun 22, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 30, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Vistra (VST). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.15% | $163.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.31% | -0.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.54% | $167.37 | 20 | no | yes | -14.95% | -6.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 0.60% | $163.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | -0.11% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | 0.60% | $210.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.26% | -1.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.42% | $177.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +7.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -1.79% | $129.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.75% | -7.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -3.46% | $137.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.79% | +2.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | 7.54% | $92.74 | 1 | yes | yes | 5.52% | +27.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.15% | $84.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.83% | +2.48% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | 0.03% | $62.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +9.00% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.13% | $37.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +2.21% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.09% | $33.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.60% | -0.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.44% | $25.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +3.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | 0.16% | $25.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.21% | -6.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | -0.08% | $24.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.06% | -0.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | -1.09% | $25.62 | >30 | no | no | -18.35% | -13.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | 2.50% | $22.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.33% | +4.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -0.40% | $22.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.81% | +3.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.24% | $20.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.64% | +8.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.83% | $18.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.11% | -2.33% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with VST's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical VST ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.60%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-11.93%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+851.87%
Best event
+0.83%
Worst event
-13.33%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · VST (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.83% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -13.33% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.14% | |
| -6.97% | |
| +0.14% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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