WEC Energy Group (WEC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.45), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, WEC sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.45in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.45 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.63% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 75% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.17% | +1.67pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 25 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.95 |
| Per-event yield | 0.84% |
| Annualized yield | 3.31% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($0.95) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 1, 2026 |
WEC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for WEC Energy Group (WEC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.95 | -1.06% | $114.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +2.39% | |
| Q4 | $0.89 | -0.44% | $111.74 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +0.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.89 | -0.86% | $109.94 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.23% | -0.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.89 | -0.87% | $103.56 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.85% | +3.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.89 | -0.78% | $103.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +1.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | -0.94% | $97.63 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +4.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -1.24% | $89.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +3.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.83 | -0.87% | $85.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.95% | +0.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.83 | -1.31% | $78.37 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.13% | +2.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.78 | -0.90% | $80.31 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.89% | +2.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.78 | -0.62% | $87.08 | 25 | no | yes | -3.28% | -0.36% | |
| Q2 | $0.78 | -0.61% | $95.45 | >30 | no | no | -7.85% | -5.58% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -0.62% | $93.27 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.80% | -1.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.73 | 1.48% | $90.35 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.38% | +3.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.73 | -0.64% | $105.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +2.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.73 | -0.58% | $101.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.10% | +1.82% | |
| Q1 | $0.73 | -0.27% | $92.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.28% | -1.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -0.35% | $89.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +1.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -0.53% | $96.41 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.70% | +1.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | -0.59% | $95.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +1.24% |
- +2.39%
- +0.26%
- -0.52%
- +3.74%
- +1.92%
- +4.27%
- +3.52%
- +0.11%
- +2.24%
- +2.23%
- -0.36%
- -5.58%
- -1.07%
- +3.76%
- +2.81%
- +1.82%
- -1.38%
- +1.88%
- +1.28%
- +1.24%
WEC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
WEC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with WEC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $190.00
- After-tax dividend
- $123.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$22.81
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$100.69
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.44%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~22.3%
WEC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical WEC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · WEC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.71% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.84% | |
| -5.58% | |
| -0.36% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +1.07% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.84% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.