Welltower (WELL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.26), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, WELL sits roughly in line with the Real Estate sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 12, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.26-0.18 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.26 | -0.18 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.53% | +0.35pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.77% | +0.94pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.74 |
| Per-event yield | 0.35% |
| Annualized yield | 1.34% |
| Previously paid | Feb 25, 2026 ($0.74) |
| Last record date | Feb 25, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 10, 2026 |
WELL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Welltower (WELL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.74 | -0.50% | $209.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.83% | -0.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.74 | -0.32% | $190.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.66% | +4.08% | |
| Q3 | $0.74 | -0.35% | $168.03 | 9 | no | yes | -4.03% | -2.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -0.73% | $145.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +2.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | -0.19% | $150.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.69% | +2.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | 0.49% | $135.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +1.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | -0.38% | $117.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.89% | -1.01% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | -0.27% | $99.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.84% | +2.76% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | 0.06% | $94.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.40% | -1.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -1.21% | $85.98 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +3.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -1.20% | $84.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.49% | -3.95% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | -0.24% | $79.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.61% | -2.77% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | 0.24% | $74.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.55% | +1.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -2.39% | $68.20 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.69% | +2.84% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -1.01% | $79.58 | >30 | no | no | -5.09% | -2.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | 0.16% | $88.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.76% | +1.80% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | -2.02% | $84.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.84% | +3.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -0.04% | $85.55 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.41% | -1.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -0.13% | $85.04 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.80% | -0.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.61 | 0.00% | $74.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.30% | -1.30% |
- -0.82%
- +4.08%
- -2.21%
- +2.54%
- +2.61%
- +1.55%
- -1.01%
- +2.76%
- -1.57%
- +3.70%
- -3.95%
- -2.77%
- +1.24%
- +2.84%
- -2.60%
- +1.80%
- +3.82%
- -1.09%
- -0.15%
- -1.30%
WELL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
WELL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with WELL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $148.00
- After-tax dividend
- $96.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$41.86
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$54.34
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.13%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~6.5%
WELL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical WELL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · WELL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.82% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.69% | |
| -2.60% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.46% | |
| -2.21% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.35% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.