Exxon Mobil (XOM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.42), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, XOM sits noticeably below the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.42+0.09 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.42 | +0.09 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.86% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.30% | +0.89pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $1.03 |
| Per-event yield | 0.66% |
| Annualized yield | 2.58% |
| Previously paid | Feb 12, 2026 ($1.03) |
| Last record date | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 10, 2026 |
XOM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Exxon Mobil (XOM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.03 | -1.07% | $155.56 | 12 | no | yes | -6.69% | -4.66% | |
| Q4 | $1.03 | -0.29% | $118.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.87% | -0.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.99 | -1.11% | $107.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.59% | +4.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.99 | -1.83% | $108.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.20% | -4.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.99 | -1.45% | $111.67 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.61% | +1.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.99 | 0.16% | $121.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.33% | +1.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.95 | -0.59% | $118.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.46% | -2.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.95 | -0.95% | $117.91 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.13% | +0.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -0.40% | $103.17 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.67% | +2.55% | |
| Q4 | $0.95 | -0.52% | $104.84 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.52% | +0.54% | |
| Q3 | $0.91 | -1.05% | $111.92 | 14 | no | yes | -5.54% | -2.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.91 | -0.26% | $105.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.55% | +0.09% | |
| Q1 | $0.91 | -1.22% | $119.17 | >30 | no | no | -8.84% | -5.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.91 | -1.16% | $113.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.68% | -1.82% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | 0.43% | $91.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.96% | +4.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | -0.97% | $86.79 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.91% | +6.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.88 | -0.85% | $80.26 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.17% | -1.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | -1.57% | $66.36 | >30 | no | no | -9.10% | -1.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.87 | -1.63% | $58.35 | >30 | no | no | -10.71% | -8.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.87 | -0.96% | $60.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.08% | -1.22% |
- -4.66%
- -0.57%
- +4.55%
- -4.17%
- +1.18%
- +1.19%
- -2.75%
- +0.75%
- +2.55%
- +0.54%
- -2.60%
- +0.09%
- -5.95%
- -1.82%
- +4.17%
- +6.03%
- -1.28%
- -1.76%
- -8.14%
- -1.22%
XOM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
XOM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with XOM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $206.00
- After-tax dividend
- $133.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$31.11
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$102.79
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.33%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.7%
XOM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical XOM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · XOM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.44% | |
| -8.14% | |
| -1.76% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -5.95% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -2.60% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.87% | |
| -4.66% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.