Exxon Mobil (XOM) Dividend Capture: 0.66% per event (2.6% annualized)
XOM
Exxon Mobil (XOM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.43), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, XOM sits noticeably below the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 15, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.03.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 85%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.43+0.11 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 85%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.43+0.11 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.86%in line with sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 45%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -4.30%+0.97pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 14
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.03
- Per-event yield
- 0.66%
- Annualized yield
- 2.63%
- Previously paid
- Feb 12, 2026 ($1.03)
- Last record date
- Feb 12, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 10, 2026
How XOM ranks in Energy
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (26 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#22of 26
Beats ~15% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 26
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#8of 26
Beats ~69% of peers on this metric
XOM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Exxon Mobil (XOM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.03 | -1.07% | $155.56 | 12 | no | yes | -6.69% | -4.66% | |
| Q4 | $1.03 | -0.29% | $118.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.87% | -0.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.99 | -1.11% | $107.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.59% | +4.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.99 | -1.83% | $108.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.20% | -4.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.99 | -1.45% | $111.67 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.61% | +1.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.99 | 0.16% | $121.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.33% | +1.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.95 | -0.59% | $118.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.46% | -2.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.95 | -0.95% | $117.91 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.13% | +0.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -0.40% | $103.17 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.67% | +2.55% | |
| Q4 | $0.95 | -0.52% | $104.84 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.52% | +0.54% | |
| Q3 | $0.91 | -1.05% | $111.92 | 14 | no | yes | -5.54% | -2.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.91 | -0.26% | $105.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.55% | +0.09% | |
| Q1 | $0.91 | -1.22% | $119.17 | >30 | no | no | -8.84% | -5.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.91 | -1.16% | $113.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.68% | -1.82% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | 0.43% | $91.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.96% | +4.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | -0.97% | $86.79 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.91% | +6.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.88 | -0.85% | $80.26 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.17% | -1.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | -1.57% | $66.36 | >30 | no | no | -9.10% | -1.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.87 | -1.63% | $58.35 | >30 | no | no | -10.71% | -8.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.87 | -0.96% | $60.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.08% | -1.22% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.03
- Gap %
- -1.07%
- Pre-ex close
- $155.56
- High touch (td)
- 12
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.69%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.66%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.03
- Gap %
- -0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $118.79
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.87%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.57%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.99
- Gap %
- -1.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $107.38
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.59%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.55%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.99
- Gap %
- -1.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $108.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.20%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.17%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.99
- Gap %
- -1.45%
- Pre-ex close
- $111.67
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.61%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.18%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.99
- Gap %
- 0.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $121.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.33%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.19%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.95
- Gap %
- -0.59%
- Pre-ex close
- $118.95
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.46%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.75%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.95
- Gap %
- -0.95%
- Pre-ex close
- $117.91
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.13%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.75%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.95
- Gap %
- -0.40%
- Pre-ex close
- $103.17
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.67%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.55%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.95
- Gap %
- -0.52%
- Pre-ex close
- $104.84
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.52%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.54%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Gap %
- -1.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $111.92
- High touch (td)
- 14
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.54%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.60%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Gap %
- -0.26%
- Pre-ex close
- $105.78
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.55%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.09%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Gap %
- -1.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $119.17
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -8.84%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.95%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Gap %
- -1.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $113.95
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.68%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.82%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- 0.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $91.45
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.96%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.17%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- -0.97%
- Pre-ex close
- $86.79
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.91%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.03%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- -0.85%
- Pre-ex close
- $80.26
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.17%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.28%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- -1.57%
- Pre-ex close
- $66.36
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -9.10%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.76%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.87
- Gap %
- -1.63%
- Pre-ex close
- $58.35
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -10.71%
- P&L 5d %
- -8.14%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.87
- Gap %
- -0.96%
- Pre-ex close
- $60.59
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.08%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.22%
XOM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day945%
- 2–3 days525%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days210%
- 30+315%
45% within 1d · 75% within 5d · 85% within 30d
XOM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with XOM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $206.00
- After-tax dividend
- $133.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$31.11
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$102.79
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.33%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.7%
XOM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical XOM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · XOM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.44% | |
| -8.14% | |
| -1.76% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -5.95% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -2.60% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.92% | |
| +0.87% | |
| -4.66% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See XOM seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for XOM?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Exxon Mobil (XOM), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take XOM to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, XOM touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 14 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on XOM large enough to capture?
XOM has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.43 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for XOM?
The next ex-dividend date for Exxon Mobil (XOM) is May 15, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does XOM compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Energy, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. XOM sits at 85% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does XOM dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.