AGCO (AGCO) Dividend Capture: 0.22% per event (1.0% annualized)
AGCO
AGCO (AGCO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AGCO sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 15, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.30.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.20in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.20in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.33%in line with sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 40%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -6.05%-2.08pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 14
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Per-event yield
- 0.22%
- Annualized yield
- 1.02%
- Previously paid
- Feb 13, 2026 ($0.29)
- Last record date
- Feb 13, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 16, 2026
How AGCO ranks in Industrials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (87 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#42of 87
Beats ~52% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#37of 87
Beats ~57% of peers on this metric
AGCO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for AGCO (AGCO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.29 | -1.16% | $138.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.70% | -2.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -1.35% | $106.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.49% | +0.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.19% | $111.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.54% | +5.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.25% | $104.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.09% | -1.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | 0.68% | $94.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.41% | +2.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | 0.68% | $92.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.15% | +6.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | 1.24% | $85.48 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.80% | +3.77% | |
| Q2 | $2.50 | -1.81% | $112.03 | >30 | no | no | -8.27% | -2.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | 0.79% | $116.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.96% | -6.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | 1.17% | $112.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.26% | -4.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | 1.74% | $114.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.62% | +1.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.46% | $127.65 | 13 | no | yes | -8.06% | -7.14% | |
| Q2 | $5.00 | -4.18% | $121.95 | 14 | no | yes | -9.95% | -2.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | 0.55% | $123.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.79% | -7.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.24 | -0.32% | $138.18 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.70% | +0.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.24 | -0.89% | $127.84 | 8 | no | yes | -5.84% | -2.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.24 | 0.22% | $112.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.49% | -0.98% | |
| Q2 | $4.50 | -4.41% | $123.96 | 6 | no | yes | -12.04% | +3.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.24 | 1.34% | $118.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.92% | -5.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.03% | $128.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.14% | -4.36% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- -1.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $138.93
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.70%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.51%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- -1.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $106.09
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.49%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.19%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- -0.19%
- Pre-ex close
- $111.38
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.54%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.08%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- -0.25%
- Pre-ex close
- $104.71
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.09%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.71%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 0.68%
- Pre-ex close
- $94.14
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.41%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.84%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 0.68%
- Pre-ex close
- $92.32
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.15%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.93%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 1.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $85.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.80%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.77%
Q2
- Dividend
- $2.50
- Gap %
- -1.81%
- Pre-ex close
- $112.03
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -8.27%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.65%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 0.79%
- Pre-ex close
- $116.25
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.96%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.73%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 1.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $112.83
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.26%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.82%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 1.74%
- Pre-ex close
- $114.24
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.62%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.29%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- -0.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $127.65
- High touch (td)
- 13
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.06%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.14%
Q2
- Dividend
- $5.00
- Gap %
- -4.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $121.95
- High touch (td)
- 14
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.95%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.75%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $123.52
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.79%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.21%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.24
- Gap %
- -0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $138.18
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.70%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.38%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.24
- Gap %
- -0.89%
- Pre-ex close
- $127.84
- High touch (td)
- 8
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.84%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.43%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.24
- Gap %
- 0.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $112.26
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.49%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.98%
Q2
- Dividend
- $4.50
- Gap %
- -4.41%
- Pre-ex close
- $123.96
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -12.04%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.65%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.24
- Gap %
- 1.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $118.41
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.92%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.10%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $128.12
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -12.14%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.36%
AGCO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1470%
- 2–3 days00%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days210%
- 11–30 days210%
- 30+15%
70% within 1d · 75% within 5d · 95% within 30d
AGCO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AGCO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $60.00
- After-tax dividend
- $39.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$27.79
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$11.21
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.04%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.0%
AGCO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AGCO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AGCO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.16% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +3.65% | |
| +0.21% | |
| -2.43% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.23% | |
| -2.75% | |
| -7.14% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.25% | |
| -2.65% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.21% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See AGCO seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for AGCO?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for AGCO (AGCO), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take AGCO to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, AGCO touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 14 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on AGCO large enough to capture?
AGCO has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.20 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for AGCO?
The next ex-dividend date for AGCO (AGCO) is May 15, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does AGCO compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Industrials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. AGCO sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does AGCO dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.