Community Bank System (CBU) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.30), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CBU sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.30in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.30 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.16% | +0.41pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.19% | +0.19pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.47 |
| Per-event yield | 0.82% |
| Annualized yield | 2.91% |
| Previously paid | Mar 16, 2026 ($0.47) |
| Last record date | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 10, 2026 |
CBU Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Community Bank System (CBU). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.47 | 0.56% | $57.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.39% | +0.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | -0.59% | $60.70 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +0.13% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.99% | $59.60 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.97% | +2.48% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -2.01% | $57.11 | 7 | no | yes | -6.23% | -1.47% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | 0.00% | $56.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.16% | +3.51% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.64% | $67.29 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.91% | -6.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | 0.72% | $56.59 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.21% | +4.63% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -1.64% | $43.91 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.99% | +3.48% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | -1.60% | $45.74 | 5 | yes | yes | -6.30% | +2.12% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | 0.02% | $51.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.41% | +4.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.11% | $43.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.51% | -4.71% | |
| Q2 | $0.44 | -0.79% | $52.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.08% | -8.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.44 | 6.93% | $51.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +8.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | -0.84% | $61.62 | 6 | no | yes | -5.42% | +0.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.44 | -0.87% | $63.38 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.37% | +2.67% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.91% | $62.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.55% | +0.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | 0.59% | $71.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.12% | +0.60% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | -0.33% | $73.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.88% | +1.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -0.60% | $68.59 | 10 | no | yes | -5.23% | -3.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.49% | $78.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.44% | -0.69% |
- +0.54%
- +0.13%
- +2.48%
- -1.47%
- +3.51%
- -6.23%
- +4.63%
- +3.48%
- +2.12%
- +4.01%
- -4.71%
- -8.19%
- +8.18%
- +0.99%
- +2.67%
- +0.49%
- +0.60%
- +1.05%
- -3.83%
- -0.69%
CBU Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
CBU Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CBU's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $94.00
- After-tax dividend
- $61.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$11.48
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$49.62
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.43%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~21.8%
CBU Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CBU ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CBU (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.53% | |
| -3.83% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.82% | |
| -1.47% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.82% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.