What is the dividend capture success rate for ESS?

Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Essex Property Trust (ESS), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.

How long does it take ESS to recover its dividend gap?

Historically, ESS touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 27 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.

Is the dividend on ESS large enough to capture?

ESS has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.43 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.

How does ESS compare to its sector for dividend capture?

Within Real Estate, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. ESS sits at 95% — above the sector benchmark.

Why does ESS dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?

A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".

How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?

Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.

What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?

Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.

Essex Property Trust (ESS) Dividend Capture: 1.07% per event (4.3% annualized)

Updated May 6, 202620 eventshigh

Essex Property Trust

ESS

Essex Property Trust (ESS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.43), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.

Versus its sector, ESS sits roughly in line with the Real Estate sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.

Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.

Touch rate (30d): 95%in line with sector
Median days-to-touch: 1din line with sector
Signal-to-noise: 0.43in line with sector

Recovery engine

TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.

30-day touch rate: 95%
in line with sector
Median days-to-touch: 1d
in line with sector
Signal-to-noise (div / ATR): 0.43
in line with sector
Avg gap on ex-date: -0.74%
in line with sector
Win rate at MOC exit: 60%
Median drawdown during hold: -3.24%
+1.49pp vs sector
Best / worst touch (days): 1 / 27

Next ex-dividend

The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.

How ESS ranks in Real Estate

Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (35 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.

Full sector ranking

30-day touch rate
#9of 35
Beats ~74% of peers on this metric
Median days to touch
#1of 35
Beats ~97% of peers on this metric
Signal-to-noise
#19of 35
Beats ~46% of peers on this metric

ESS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events

Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Essex Property Trust (ESS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.

						Recovered 5d	Recovered 30d
Mar 31, 2026	Q1	$2.59	0.46%	$242.61	1	yes	yes	-1.18%	+4.90%
Jan 2, 2026	Q1	$2.57	-1.02%	$261.68	27	no	yes	-5.35%	-3.09%
Sep 30, 2025	Q3	$2.57	-1.40%	$266.22	1	yes	yes	-4.38%	-0.59%
Jun 30, 2025	Q2	$2.57	-1.02%	$285.41	2	yes	yes	-2.99%	+1.10%
Mar 31, 2025	Q1	$2.57	-0.41%	$306.00	1	yes	yes	-20.31%	-13.41%
Jan 2, 2025	Q1	$2.45	-1.06%	$285.44	8	no	yes	-6.12%	-3.89%
Sep 30, 2024	Q3	$2.45	-1.53%	$294.60	1	yes	yes	-3.69%	-1.44%
Jun 28, 2024	Q2	$2.45	-0.03%	$273.38	1	yes	yes	-1.82%	+0.79%
Mar 27, 2024	Q1	$2.45	-0.10%	$237.73	1	yes	yes	-1.96%	+0.29%
Dec 29, 2023	Q4	$2.31	-1.58%	$252.75	>30	no	no	-4.66%	-0.83%
Sep 28, 2023	Q3	$2.31	-0.55%	$210.74	1	yes	yes	-2.05%	+1.86%
Jun 29, 2023	Q2	$2.31	-1.28%	$230.27	1	yes	yes	-1.72%	+2.30%
Mar 30, 2023	Q1	$2.31	0.22%	$204.31	1	yes	yes	-0.72%	+3.79%
Dec 30, 2022	Q4	$2.20	-1.48%	$214.27	3	yes	yes	-4.03%	+0.23%
Sep 29, 2022	Q3	$2.20	-1.80%	$244.70	3	yes	yes	-10.44%	-5.64%
Jun 29, 2022	Q2	$2.20	-0.98%	$264.02	2	yes	yes	-2.37%	+1.61%
Mar 30, 2022	Q1	$2.20	-1.21%	$356.74	15	no	yes	-3.94%	+0.22%
Dec 31, 2021	Q4	$2.09	-0.34%	$352.69	1	yes	yes	-3.48%	-1.78%
Sep 29, 2021	Q3	$2.09	0.96%	$319.67	1	yes	yes	-0.59%	+3.53%
Jun 29, 2021	Q2	$2.09	-0.74%	$305.65	3	yes	yes	-1.92%	+3.05%

Ex-date Mar 31, 2026Q1
Dividend
$2.59
Gap %
0.46%
Pre-ex close
$242.61
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.18%
P&L 5d %
+4.90%
Ex-date Jan 2, 2026Q1
Dividend
$2.57
Gap %
-1.02%
Pre-ex close
$261.68
High touch (td)
27
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-5.35%
P&L 5d %
-3.09%
Ex-date Sep 30, 2025Q3
Dividend
$2.57
Gap %
-1.40%
Pre-ex close
$266.22
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.38%
P&L 5d %
-0.59%
Ex-date Jun 30, 2025Q2
Dividend
$2.57
Gap %
-1.02%
Pre-ex close
$285.41
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.99%
P&L 5d %
+1.10%
Ex-date Mar 31, 2025Q1
Dividend
$2.57
Gap %
-0.41%
Pre-ex close
$306.00
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-20.31%
P&L 5d %
-13.41%
Ex-date Jan 2, 2025Q1
Dividend
$2.45
Gap %
-1.06%
Pre-ex close
$285.44
High touch (td)
8
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-6.12%
P&L 5d %
-3.89%
Ex-date Sep 30, 2024Q3
Dividend
$2.45
Gap %
-1.53%
Pre-ex close
$294.60
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.69%
P&L 5d %
-1.44%
Ex-date Jun 28, 2024Q2
Dividend
$2.45
Gap %
-0.03%
Pre-ex close
$273.38
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.82%
P&L 5d %
+0.79%
Ex-date Mar 27, 2024Q1
Dividend
$2.45
Gap %
-0.10%
Pre-ex close
$237.73
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.96%
P&L 5d %
+0.29%
Ex-date Dec 29, 2023Q4
Dividend
$2.31
Gap %
-1.58%
Pre-ex close
$252.75
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-4.66%
P&L 5d %
-0.83%
Ex-date Sep 28, 2023Q3
Dividend
$2.31
Gap %
-0.55%
Pre-ex close
$210.74
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.05%
P&L 5d %
+1.86%
Ex-date Jun 29, 2023Q2
Dividend
$2.31
Gap %
-1.28%
Pre-ex close
$230.27
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.72%
P&L 5d %
+2.30%
Ex-date Mar 30, 2023Q1
Dividend
$2.31
Gap %
0.22%
Pre-ex close
$204.31
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.72%
P&L 5d %
+3.79%
Ex-date Dec 30, 2022Q4
Dividend
$2.20
Gap %
-1.48%
Pre-ex close
$214.27
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.03%
P&L 5d %
+0.23%
Ex-date Sep 29, 2022Q3
Dividend
$2.20
Gap %
-1.80%
Pre-ex close
$244.70
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-10.44%
P&L 5d %
-5.64%
Ex-date Jun 29, 2022Q2
Dividend
$2.20
Gap %
-0.98%
Pre-ex close
$264.02
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.37%
P&L 5d %
+1.61%
Ex-date Mar 30, 2022Q1
Dividend
$2.20
Gap %
-1.21%
Pre-ex close
$356.74
High touch (td)
15
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.94%
P&L 5d %
+0.22%
Ex-date Dec 31, 2021Q4
Dividend
$2.09
Gap %
-0.34%
Pre-ex close
$352.69
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.48%
P&L 5d %
-1.78%
Ex-date Sep 29, 2021Q3
Dividend
$2.09
Gap %
0.96%
Pre-ex close
$319.67
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.59%
P&L 5d %
+3.53%
Ex-date Jun 29, 2021Q2
Dividend
$2.09
Gap %
-0.74%
Pre-ex close
$305.65
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.92%
P&L 5d %
+3.05%

ESS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution

20 events analyzedHigh touched pre-ex within 5 trading days: 80% (16 events)

≤ 1 day
1155%
2–3 days
525%
4–5 days
00%
6–10 days
15%
11–30 days
210%
30+
15%

55% within 1d · 80% within 5d · 95% within 30d

ESS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield

Pre-filled with ESS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.

ESS dividend ($)ESS price ($)SharesHold (days)Tax %?Slippage % per leg

Slippage preset

Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.

Display

Gross dividend: $518.00
After-tax dividend: $336.70
Slippage round-trip: -$48.52
Net if price returns to pre-ex: +$288.18
Required recovery to break even: 0.00%
Per-event after-tax yield: +0.59%
Annual if all succeed: ~29.9%

Scenariosbase rate 95%

Best (limit fills)+$288.18

Average (base rate)+$262.28

Worst (no recovery)$229.82

Open in full calculator →

ESS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator

Replay every historical ESS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.

Limit window:Quarter:

Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).

Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).

Avg P&L per trade(20 events)+0.34%

Win rate (20 trades)

85%

Cumulative P&L

+6.86%Sum of per-event % (not compounded)

Buy & hold (same sample)

-5.45%Span: Jun 29, 2021 → Mar 31, 2026 · long-horizon total return vs repeating capture cycles

Best event

Mar 30, 2023+1.13%

Worst event

Jan 2, 2025-3.89%

Cumulative P&L (equity curve)

Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.

Jun 29, 2021Mar 31, 2026

Per-event P&L distribution

20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).

<-3%

-3..-1%

-1..0%

0..1%

1..3%

>3%

Scenario P&L by event · ESS (20)

Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.

Ex-date	P&L
Jun 29, 2021	+0.68%
Sep 29, 2021	+0.65%
Dec 31, 2021	+0.59%
Mar 30, 2022	+0.22%
Jun 29, 2022	+0.83%
Sep 29, 2022	+0.90%
Dec 30, 2022	+1.03%
Mar 30, 2023	+1.13%
Jun 29, 2023	+1.00%
Sep 28, 2023	+1.10%
Dec 29, 2023	-0.83%
Mar 27, 2024	+1.03%
Jun 28, 2024	+0.90%
Sep 30, 2024	+0.83%
Jan 2, 2025	-3.89%
Mar 31, 2025	+0.84%
Jun 30, 2025	+0.90%
Sep 30, 2025	+0.97%
Jan 2, 2026	-3.09%
Mar 31, 2026	+1.07%

Looking for full price seasonality? See ESS seasonality →

Frequently asked questions

What is the dividend capture success rate for ESS?: Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Essex Property Trust (ESS), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take ESS to recover its dividend gap?: Historically, ESS touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 27 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on ESS large enough to capture?: ESS has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.43 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does ESS compare to its sector for dividend capture?: Within Real Estate, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. ESS sits at 95% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does ESS dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?: A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?: Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?: Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.