Expand Energy (EXE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 94% of the last 18 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.34), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EXE sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 13, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 94%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.34in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 18 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 94% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.34 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.05% | -0.23pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 74% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.23% | +2.95pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.57 |
| Per-event yield | 0.54% |
| Annualized yield | 3.30% |
| Previously paid | Mar 5, 2026 ($0.57) |
| Last record date | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 26, 2026 |
EXE Dividend Capture History — Last 19 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Expand Energy (EXE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.40% | $105.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.12% | +2.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.22% | $119.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.36% | -3.67% | |
| Q3 | $1.47 | -1.51% | $96.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.64% | +0.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.98% | $113.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.98% | +1.46% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.23% | $96.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +5.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.58% | $72.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +0.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.59% | $90.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.47% | -0.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | 0.29% | $82.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +3.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.40% | $81.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +1.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -1.51% | $82.87 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +3.14% | |
| Q2 | $1.18 | -0.65% | $79.98 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.28% | +1.46% | |
| Q1 | $1.29 | -3.74% | $84.17 | >30 | no | no | -17.22% | -10.24% | |
| Q4 | $3.16 | -2.11% | $102.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.19% | -1.16% | |
| Q3 | $2.32 | -0.89% | $95.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.10% | +7.08% | |
| Q2 | $2.34 | -3.06% | $90.48 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.13% | +12.28% | |
| Q1 | $1.77 | -2.43% | $80.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.74% | +2.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | 0.03% | $61.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.30% | -6.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.17% | $52.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.05% | +4.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.10% | $50.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.60% | +5.26% |
- +2.38%
- -3.67%
- +0.47%
- +1.46%
- +5.62%
- +0.02%
- -0.38%
- +3.15%
- +1.04%
- +3.14%
- +1.46%
- -10.24%
- -1.16%
- +7.08%
- +12.28%
- +2.54%
- -6.18%
- +4.68%
- +5.26%
EXE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 74% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 21% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
EXE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with EXE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $114.00
- After-tax dividend
- $74.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$21.18
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$52.92
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.25%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.6%
EXE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical EXE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
19 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EXE (19)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.68% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +2.20% | |
| +2.59% | |
| +2.42% | |
| +3.09% | |
| -10.24% | |
| +1.48% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +1.52% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.54% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.