EXE dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Expand Energy (EXE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.32), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EXE sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 13, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.58.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.32
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.32 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.03% | -0.29pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 75% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.35% | +2.82pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.58
Per-event yield
0.60%
Annualized yield
2.43%
Previously paid
May 14, 2026 ($0.58)
Last record date
May 14, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 4, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Expand Energy (EXE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.58 | -1.23% | $95.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.76% | +2.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.58 | -0.40% | $105.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.12% | +2.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.22% | $119.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.36% | -3.67% | |
| Q3 | $1.47 | -1.51% | $96.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.64% | +0.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | -0.98% | $113.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.98% | +1.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.58 | -0.65% | $99.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.75% | +8.56% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.23% | $96.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +5.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -0.58% | $72.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +0.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.72 | -0.59% | $90.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.47% | -0.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.58 | 0.29% | $82.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +3.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.40% | $81.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +1.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -1.51% | $82.87 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +3.14% | |
| Q2 | $1.18 | -0.65% | $79.98 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.28% | +1.46% | |
| Q1 | $1.29 | -3.74% | $84.17 | >30 | no | no | -17.22% | -10.24% | |
| Q4 | $3.16 | -2.11% | $102.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.19% | -1.16% | |
| Q3 | $2.32 | -0.89% | $95.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.10% | +7.08% | |
| Q2 | $2.34 | -3.06% | $90.48 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.13% | +12.28% | |
| Q1 | $1.77 | -2.43% | $80.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.74% | +2.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | 0.03% | $61.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.30% | -6.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.17% | $52.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.05% | +4.68% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with EXE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical EXE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.57%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+11.40%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+123.03%
Best event
+3.09%
Worst event
-10.24%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EXE (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.65% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +2.20% | |
| +2.59% | |
| +2.42% | |
| +3.09% | |
| -10.24% | |
| +1.48% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +1.52% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.60% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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