Expand Energy (EXE) Dividend Capture: 0.54% per event (3.2% annualized)
Expand Energy (EXE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.33), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EXE sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 14, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.57.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.33in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.33in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -1.00%-0.20pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 74%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.23%+3.03pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 3
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Per-event yield
- 0.54%
- Annualized yield
- 3.20%
- Previously paid
- Mar 5, 2026 ($0.57)
- Last record date
- Mar 5, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 26, 2026
How EXE ranks in Energy
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (26 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#15of 26
Beats ~42% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 26
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#14of 26
Beats ~46% of peers on this metric
EXE Dividend Capture History — Last 19 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Expand Energy (EXE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.40% | $105.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.12% | +2.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.22% | $119.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.36% | -3.67% | |
| Q3 | $1.47 | -1.51% | $96.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.64% | +0.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.98% | $113.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.98% | +1.46% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.23% | $96.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +5.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.58% | $72.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +0.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.59% | $90.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.47% | -0.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | 0.29% | $82.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +3.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -0.40% | $81.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +1.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -1.51% | $82.87 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +3.14% | |
| Q2 | $1.18 | -0.65% | $79.98 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.28% | +1.46% | |
| Q1 | $1.29 | -3.74% | $84.17 | >30 | no | no | -17.22% | -10.24% | |
| Q4 | $3.16 | -2.11% | $102.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.19% | -1.16% | |
| Q3 | $2.32 | -0.89% | $95.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.10% | +7.08% | |
| Q2 | $2.34 | -3.06% | $90.48 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.13% | +12.28% | |
| Q1 | $1.77 | -2.43% | $80.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.74% | +2.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | 0.03% | $61.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.30% | -6.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.17% | $52.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.05% | +4.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.10% | $50.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.60% | +5.26% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.40%
- Pre-ex close
- $105.88
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.12%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.38%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $119.46
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.36%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.67%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.47
- Gap %
- -1.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $96.46
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.64%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.47%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.98%
- Pre-ex close
- $113.31
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.98%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.46%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $96.14
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.70%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.62%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.58%
- Pre-ex close
- $72.17
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.68%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.02%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.71
- Gap %
- -0.59%
- Pre-ex close
- $90.81
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.47%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.38%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- 0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $82.92
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.04%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.15%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -0.40%
- Pre-ex close
- $81.54
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.23%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.04%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.57
- Gap %
- -1.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $82.87
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.81%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.14%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.18
- Gap %
- -0.65%
- Pre-ex close
- $79.98
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.28%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.46%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.29
- Gap %
- -3.74%
- Pre-ex close
- $84.17
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -17.22%
- P&L 5d %
- -10.24%
Q4
- Dividend
- $3.16
- Gap %
- -2.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $102.43
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.19%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.16%
Q3
- Dividend
- $2.32
- Gap %
- -0.89%
- Pre-ex close
- $95.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.10%
- P&L 5d %
- +7.08%
Q2
- Dividend
- $2.34
- Gap %
- -3.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $90.48
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.13%
- P&L 5d %
- +12.28%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.77
- Gap %
- -2.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $80.28
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.74%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.54%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.44
- Gap %
- 0.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $61.22
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.30%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.18%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- 0.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $52.67
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.05%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.68%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- -0.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $50.49
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.60%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.26%
EXE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1474%
- 2–3 days421%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+15%
74% within 1d · 95% within 5d · 95% within 30d
EXE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with EXE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $114.00
- After-tax dividend
- $74.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$21.18
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$52.92
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.25%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.6%
EXE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical EXE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
19 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EXE (19)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.68% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +2.20% | |
| +2.59% | |
| +2.42% | |
| +3.09% | |
| -10.24% | |
| +1.48% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +1.52% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.54% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See EXE seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for EXE?
Across the last 19 ex-dividend events for Expand Energy (EXE), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take EXE to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, EXE touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 3 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on EXE large enough to capture?
EXE has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.33 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for EXE?
The next ex-dividend date for Expand Energy (EXE) is May 14, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does EXE compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Energy, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. EXE sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does EXE dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.