H2O America (HTO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HTO sits noticeably below the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 10, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.25-0.20 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.25 | -0.20 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.59% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.01% | +0.83pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 20 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.44 |
| Per-event yield | 0.84% |
| Annualized yield | 3.00% |
| Previously paid | Feb 9, 2026 ($0.44) |
| Last record date | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 2, 2026 |
HTO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for H2O America (HTO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.44 | -1.16% | $52.37 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.81% | +4.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -1.22% | $47.67 | 5 | yes | yes | -8.22% | -0.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.94% | $50.25 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.85% | -0.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.08% | $53.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.97% | +1.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | 0.02% | $50.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +6.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.69% | $54.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +2.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.65% | $61.62 | >30 | no | no | -7.85% | -5.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 0.49% | $55.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.92% | +4.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -1.56% | $60.35 | 7 | no | yes | -4.21% | -0.98% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | 1.30% | $63.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.45% | -2.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -0.38% | $68.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.73% | +1.10% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -0.58% | $76.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | -0.13% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -0.61% | $80.90 | >30 | no | no | -7.47% | -4.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -0.59% | $69.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.20% | +3.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -1.03% | $67.17 | 6 | no | yes | -3.22% | +0.86% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -1.52% | $58.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.52% | +5.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -1.27% | $67.78 | 20 | no | yes | -6.54% | -4.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | 0.03% | $70.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +1.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.71% | $70.88 | 19 | no | yes | -4.90% | -2.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.73% | $64.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.07% | -1.60% |
- +4.95%
- -0.36%
- -0.20%
- +1.64%
- +6.81%
- +2.20%
- -5.53%
- +4.56%
- -0.98%
- -2.40%
- +1.10%
- -0.13%
- -4.08%
- +3.24%
- +0.86%
- +5.08%
- -4.06%
- +1.43%
- -2.64%
- -1.60%
HTO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
HTO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with HTO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $88.00
- After-tax dividend
- $57.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.47
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$46.73
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.45%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~22.5%
HTO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical HTO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HTO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.53% | |
| -2.64% | |
| +0.48% | |
| -4.06% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.52% | |
| -4.08% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -0.98% | |
| +0.72% | |
| -5.53% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.84% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.