MPC dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.19), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MPC sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 19, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.00.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.19
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.19 | -0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.80% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.80% | +0.36pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.00
Per-event yield
0.38%
Annualized yield
1.30%
Previously paid
May 20, 2026 ($1.00)
Last record date
May 20, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 10, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Marathon Petroleum (MPC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.00 | -1.13% | $263.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.24% | -4.06% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | 0.43% | $200.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.10% | -1.88% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -3.20% | $199.61 | >30 | no | no | -6.59% | -3.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.91 | -0.26% | $164.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.78% | +8.77% | |
| Q2 | $0.91 | -1.60% | $161.53 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.26% | -0.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.91 | -0.80% | $159.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.31% | -7.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.91 | -0.30% | $158.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.12% | -1.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -0.03% | $171.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.52% | -0.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.83 | -0.75% | $174.51 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.52% | +1.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.83 | -0.79% | $170.01 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.76% | +1.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | -0.62% | $150.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.51% | -0.42% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -2.62% | $148.54 | 16 | no | yes | -5.96% | -3.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.68% | $110.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.04% | +0.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.71% | $128.64 | 10 | no | yes | -5.52% | -1.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.29% | $120.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +5.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | 0.91% | $95.79 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.06% | +8.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | 1.41% | $96.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +1.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.58 | -2.35% | $79.16 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.10% | -3.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.62% | $66.12 | >30 | no | no | -9.94% | -2.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -1.64% | $58.38 | 7 | no | yes | -8.41% | +0.27% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with MPC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MPC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.12%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
-2.46%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+369.70%
Best event
+0.73%
Worst event
-3.44%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MPC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.27% | |
| -2.56% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -1.84% | |
| +0.68% | |
| -3.26% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -3.44% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.38% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
© Ticker League
Ticker League provides financial data, tools, and games for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Data may be delayed or inaccurate — verify independently before making any investment decision.
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric