Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Dividend Capture: 0.50% per event (1.5% annualized)
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MPC sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 20, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.00.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.20-0.12 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.20-0.12 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.77%in line with sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 40%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -4.49%+0.78pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 16
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Per-event yield
- 0.50%
- Annualized yield
- 1.50%
- Previously paid
- Feb 18, 2026 ($1.00)
- Last record date
- Feb 18, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 10, 2026
How MPC ranks in Energy
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (26 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#16of 26
Beats ~38% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 26
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#19of 26
Beats ~27% of peers on this metric
MPC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Marathon Petroleum (MPC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.00 | 0.43% | $200.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.10% | -1.88% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -3.20% | $199.61 | >30 | no | no | -6.59% | -3.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.91 | -0.26% | $164.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.78% | +8.77% | |
| Q2 | $0.91 | -1.60% | $161.53 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.26% | -0.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.91 | -0.80% | $159.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.31% | -7.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.91 | -0.30% | $158.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.12% | -1.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | -0.03% | $171.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.52% | -0.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.82 | -0.75% | $174.51 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.52% | +1.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.82 | -0.79% | $170.01 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.76% | +1.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.82 | -0.62% | $150.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.51% | -0.42% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -2.62% | $148.54 | 16 | no | yes | -5.96% | -3.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.68% | $110.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.04% | +0.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.71% | $128.64 | 10 | no | yes | -5.52% | -1.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.29% | $120.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +5.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | 0.91% | $95.79 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.06% | +8.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | 1.41% | $96.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +1.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.58 | -2.35% | $79.16 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.10% | -3.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.62% | $66.12 | >30 | no | no | -9.94% | -2.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -1.64% | $58.38 | 7 | no | yes | -8.41% | +0.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | -0.55% | $61.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.47% | -1.51% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Gap %
- 0.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $200.54
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.10%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.88%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Gap %
- -3.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $199.61
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -6.59%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.44%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Gap %
- -0.26%
- Pre-ex close
- $164.38
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.78%
- P&L 5d %
- +8.77%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Gap %
- -1.60%
- Pre-ex close
- $161.53
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.26%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.43%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Gap %
- -0.80%
- Pre-ex close
- $159.03
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -12.31%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.43%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Gap %
- -0.30%
- Pre-ex close
- $158.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.12%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.59%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.82
- Gap %
- -0.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $171.61
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.52%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.50%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.82
- Gap %
- -0.75%
- Pre-ex close
- $174.51
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.52%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.34%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.82
- Gap %
- -0.79%
- Pre-ex close
- $170.01
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.76%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.14%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.82
- Gap %
- -0.62%
- Pre-ex close
- $150.67
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.51%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.42%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- -2.62%
- Pre-ex close
- $148.54
- High touch (td)
- 16
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.96%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.26%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- -0.68%
- Pre-ex close
- $110.63
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.04%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.04%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- -1.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $128.64
- High touch (td)
- 10
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.52%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.84%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- 0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $120.53
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.27%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.66%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- 0.91%
- Pre-ex close
- $95.79
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.06%
- P&L 5d %
- +8.64%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- 1.41%
- Pre-ex close
- $96.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.54%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.46%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- -2.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $79.16
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.10%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.61%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- -0.62%
- Pre-ex close
- $66.12
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -9.94%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.56%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- -1.64%
- Pre-ex close
- $58.38
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.41%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.27%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- -0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $61.52
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.47%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.51%
MPC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1155%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days210%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+210%
55% within 1d · 75% within 5d · 90% within 30d
MPC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MPC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $200.00
- After-tax dividend
- $130.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$40.11
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$89.89
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.22%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~11.3%
MPC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MPC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MPC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.94% | |
| +0.27% | |
| -2.56% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -1.84% | |
| +0.68% | |
| -3.26% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -3.44% | |
| +0.50% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See MPC seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for MPC?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Marathon Petroleum (MPC), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take MPC to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, MPC touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 16 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on MPC large enough to capture?
MPC has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.20 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for MPC?
The next ex-dividend date for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is May 20, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does MPC compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Energy, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. MPC sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does MPC dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.