Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MPC sits noticeably below the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 19, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.20-0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.20 | -0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.79% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.49% | +0.70pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $1.00 |
| Per-event yield | 0.50% |
| Annualized yield | 1.51% |
| Previously paid | Feb 18, 2026 ($1.00) |
| Last record date | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 10, 2026 |
MPC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Marathon Petroleum (MPC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.00 | 0.43% | $200.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.10% | -1.88% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -3.20% | $199.61 | >30 | no | no | -6.59% | -3.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.91 | -0.26% | $164.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.78% | +8.77% | |
| Q2 | $0.91 | -1.60% | $161.53 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.26% | -0.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.91 | -0.80% | $159.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.31% | -7.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.91 | -0.30% | $158.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.12% | -1.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | -0.03% | $171.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.52% | -0.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.82 | -0.75% | $174.51 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.52% | +1.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.82 | -0.79% | $170.01 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.76% | +1.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.82 | -0.62% | $150.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.51% | -0.42% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -2.62% | $148.54 | 16 | no | yes | -5.96% | -3.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.68% | $110.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.04% | +0.04% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.71% | $128.64 | 10 | no | yes | -5.52% | -1.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.29% | $120.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.27% | +5.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | 0.91% | $95.79 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.06% | +8.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | 1.41% | $96.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +1.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.58 | -2.35% | $79.16 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.10% | -3.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.62% | $66.12 | >30 | no | no | -9.94% | -2.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -1.64% | $58.38 | 7 | no | yes | -8.41% | +0.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | -0.55% | $61.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.47% | -1.51% |
- -1.88%
- -3.44%
- +8.77%
- -0.43%
- -7.43%
- -1.59%
- -0.50%
- +1.34%
- +1.14%
- -0.42%
- -3.26%
- +0.04%
- -1.84%
- +5.66%
- +8.64%
- +1.46%
- -3.61%
- -2.56%
- +0.27%
- -1.51%
MPC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
MPC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MPC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $200.00
- After-tax dividend
- $130.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$40.11
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$89.89
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.22%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~11.3%
MPC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MPC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MPC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.94% | |
| +0.27% | |
| -2.56% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -1.84% | |
| +0.68% | |
| -3.26% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -3.44% | |
| +0.50% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.