Phillips 66 (PSX) Dividend Capture: 0.82% per event (2.7% annualized)
PSX
Phillips 66 (PSX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.33), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PSX sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 18, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.27.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.33in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.33in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -1.13%-0.33pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -4.94%+0.32pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 21
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.27
- Per-event yield
- 0.82%
- Annualized yield
- 2.74%
- Previously paid
- Feb 23, 2026 ($1.27)
- Last record date
- Feb 23, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 4, 2026
How PSX ranks in Energy
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (26 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#7of 26
Beats ~73% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#20of 26
Beats ~23% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#12of 26
Beats ~54% of peers on this metric
PSX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Phillips 66 (PSX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.27 | -1.01% | $155.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.24% | +3.66% | |
| Q4 | $1.20 | -1.12% | $142.32 | 14 | no | yes | -8.21% | -5.56% | |
| Q3 | $1.20 | -1.05% | $122.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.30% | +6.72% | |
| Q2 | $1.20 | -2.35% | $125.73 | 21 | no | yes | -12.71% | -8.11% | |
| Q1 | $1.15 | -0.89% | $128.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.39% | -2.05% | |
| Q4 | $1.15 | -0.20% | $130.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +2.69% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | -0.83% | $139.34 | 9 | no | yes | -5.11% | -2.73% | |
| Q2 | $1.15 | -0.24% | $145.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.07% | -1.38% | |
| Q1 | $1.05 | -0.71% | $146.37 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.02% | +2.04% | |
| Q4 | $1.05 | -1.77% | $115.49 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.11% | +3.63% | |
| Q3 | $1.05 | 0.41% | $113.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.75% | +0.15% | |
| Q2 | $1.05 | -0.80% | $96.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.17% | -0.33% | |
| Q1 | $1.05 | -2.76% | $104.92 | 8 | no | yes | -6.50% | -0.21% | |
| Q4 | $0.97 | -2.01% | $111.11 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.78% | +0.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.97 | -2.13% | $89.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.45% | +4.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.97 | 0.10% | $95.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.04% | +7.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.92 | -2.13% | $87.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.84% | -2.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.92 | -1.10% | $78.91 | >30 | no | no | -14.99% | -5.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -2.10% | $71.85 | 7 | no | yes | -10.30% | -0.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.90 | 0.12% | $85.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.41% | +0.02% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.27
- Gap %
- -1.01%
- Pre-ex close
- $155.75
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.24%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.66%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.20
- Gap %
- -1.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $142.32
- High touch (td)
- 14
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.21%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.56%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.20
- Gap %
- -1.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $122.84
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.30%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.72%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.20
- Gap %
- -2.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $125.73
- High touch (td)
- 21
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -12.71%
- P&L 5d %
- -8.11%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.15
- Gap %
- -0.89%
- Pre-ex close
- $128.78
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.39%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.05%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.15
- Gap %
- -0.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $130.91
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.94%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.69%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.15
- Gap %
- -0.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $139.34
- High touch (td)
- 9
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.11%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.73%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.15
- Gap %
- -0.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $145.85
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.07%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.38%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.05
- Gap %
- -0.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $146.37
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.02%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.04%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.05
- Gap %
- -1.77%
- Pre-ex close
- $115.49
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.11%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.63%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.05
- Gap %
- 0.41%
- Pre-ex close
- $113.27
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.75%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.15%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.05
- Gap %
- -0.80%
- Pre-ex close
- $96.28
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.17%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.33%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.05
- Gap %
- -2.76%
- Pre-ex close
- $104.92
- High touch (td)
- 8
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.50%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.21%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.97
- Gap %
- -2.01%
- Pre-ex close
- $111.11
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.78%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.51%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.97
- Gap %
- -2.13%
- Pre-ex close
- $89.36
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.45%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.45%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.97
- Gap %
- 0.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $95.33
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.04%
- P&L 5d %
- +7.73%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.92
- Gap %
- -2.13%
- Pre-ex close
- $87.04
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.84%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.16%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.92
- Gap %
- -1.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $78.91
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -14.99%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.27%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.90
- Gap %
- -2.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $71.85
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.30%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.03%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.90
- Gap %
- 0.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $85.10
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.41%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.02%
PSX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day840%
- 2–3 days420%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days315%
- 11–30 days210%
- 30+15%
40% within 1d · 70% within 5d · 95% within 30d
PSX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PSX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $254.00
- After-tax dividend
- $165.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$31.15
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$133.95
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.43%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~21.7%
PSX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PSX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PSX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.06% | |
| -0.03% | |
| -5.27% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +1.09% | |
| +0.87% | |
| -0.21% | |
| +1.09% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -2.73% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.89% | |
| -8.11% | |
| +0.98% | |
| -5.56% | |
| +0.82% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See PSX seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for PSX?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Phillips 66 (PSX), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take PSX to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, PSX touches its pre-ex close in a median of 2 trading days, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 21 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on PSX large enough to capture?
PSX has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.33 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for PSX?
The next ex-dividend date for Phillips 66 (PSX) is May 18, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does PSX compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Energy, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. PSX sits at 95% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does PSX dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.