PSX dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Phillips 66 (PSX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.33), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PSX sits roughly in line with the Energy sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 18, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.27.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.33
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.33 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.21% | -0.46pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.94% | +0.22pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 21 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.27
Per-event yield
0.72%
Annualized yield
2.43%
Previously paid
May 18, 2026 ($1.27)
Last record date
May 18, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Phillips 66 (PSX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.27 | -1.54% | $176.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.51% | -0.60% | |
| Q1 | $1.27 | -1.01% | $155.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.24% | +3.66% | |
| Q4 | $1.20 | -1.12% | $142.32 | 14 | no | yes | -8.21% | -5.56% | |
| Q3 | $1.20 | -1.05% | $122.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.30% | +6.72% | |
| Q2 | $1.20 | -2.35% | $125.73 | 21 | no | yes | -12.71% | -8.11% | |
| Q1 | $1.15 | -0.89% | $128.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.39% | -2.05% | |
| Q4 | $1.15 | -0.20% | $130.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +2.69% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | -0.83% | $139.34 | 9 | no | yes | -5.11% | -2.73% | |
| Q2 | $1.15 | -0.24% | $145.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.07% | -1.38% | |
| Q1 | $1.05 | -0.71% | $146.37 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.02% | +2.04% | |
| Q4 | $1.05 | -1.78% | $115.49 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.11% | +3.63% | |
| Q3 | $1.05 | 0.41% | $113.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.75% | +0.15% | |
| Q2 | $1.05 | -0.80% | $96.28 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.17% | -0.33% | |
| Q1 | $1.05 | -2.76% | $104.92 | 8 | no | yes | -6.50% | -0.21% | |
| Q4 | $0.97 | -2.01% | $111.11 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.78% | +0.51% | |
| Q3 | $0.97 | -2.13% | $89.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.45% | +4.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.97 | 0.10% | $95.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.04% | +7.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.92 | -2.13% | $87.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.84% | -2.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.92 | -1.10% | $78.91 | >30 | no | no | -14.99% | -5.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -2.10% | $71.85 | 7 | no | yes | -10.30% | -0.03% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with PSX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical PSX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.46%
Win rate (20 trades)
70%
Cumulative P&L
-9.17%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+180.36%
Best event
+1.09%
Worst event
-8.11%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PSX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -0.03% | |
| -5.27% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +1.09% | |
| +0.87% | |
| -0.21% | |
| +1.09% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -2.73% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.89% | |
| -8.11% | |
| +0.98% | |
| -5.56% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.72% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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