Two ways to earn
A prediction earns XP on two independent axes. First, accuracy: how close your revenue and EPS forecasts land to the actual reported numbers. Second, beating the Street: a bonus when your forecast was closer to the truth than the Wall Street consensus. The two combine into a single score that is then floored at zero and capped.
Why difficulty matters
The accuracy base is multiplied by a difficulty factor that rises for volatile, widely-dispersed, thinly-covered names and falls for stable, heavily-covered ones. Nailing a hard, under-covered stock — exactly where independent retail forecasting adds the most value — pays the most; grinding easy mega-caps pays little.
Why the Street has to be credible
The beat-the-Street bonus is scaled by a consensus-confidence factor built from the number of analysts and how tight their range is. When there is no real Street to beat — one or zero analysts, or no published range — the confidence collapses to zero and so does the bonus. That kills the incentive to farm easy “beats” on names nobody covers, while still rewarding genuine accuracy there.
Related tools
See the exact formula and constants in the scoring methodology, then make a prediction in the earnings estimates game. The composed score is clamp(round(base × difficulty + (beatRev + beatEps) × confidence) + calibration, 0, 375).