Is July a good month for stocks?
Over the 10-year (2017–2026) period, the S&P 500 has averaged a 3.35% return in July, closing the month higher 100% of the time — the 2nd-best of the twelve calendar months by average return. That is a genuinely strong month historically, though a single month's past average says nothing certain about what this specific July will do.
The chart below shows the average return for every calendar month, computed the same way as the seasonality returns methodology used across the site.
Average S&P 500 return by month
Historical average, 10-year (2017–2026)
Does "sell in May and go away" work?
The adage claims stocks do better from November through April than from May through October. Compounding the average monthly returns above, the November–April half has produced roughly 6.8% against 7.6% for the May–October half, in this dataset. The gap is real in the historical average, but it is an average across many years, not a rule any single year has to follow — some Mays have outperformed some Novembers by a wide margin.
As with any seasonal pattern, this is a description of what happened historically, not a forecast. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and a six-month seasonal edge is easily overwhelmed by a single macro shock or earnings surprise.
What is the best month for the stock market?
By average return over the same sample, November is the strongest calendar month for the S&P 500, averaging 4.23%. July ranks 2nd-best. Rankings like this shift as more years of data are added — see the full breakdown, including win rate and best/worst years per month, in the seasonality methodology.
Frequently asked questions
Related reading
- Seasonality returns methodology — how average, median, win rate, and best/worst are computed for any ticker or index.
- H1 2026 market recap — how the first half of the year actually played out against seasonal expectations.
- Total return vs price return explained — the return basis behind every seasonality figure on this site.