Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ASMLF is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,372.78
Method range
$107.44 – $1,372.78
median $1,031.96
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,372.78 | -22.81% |
| Exit multiple | $1,031.96 | -41.97% |
| Analyst target | — | — |
| Graham number | $107.44 | -93.96% |
- Forward DCF$1,372.78
- Exit multiple$1,031.96
- Analyst target—
- Graham number$107.44
Stock price
$1778.46
EPS (TTM)
$26.75
5Y EPS CAGR
23.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$1372.78
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied EPS growth
27.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -29.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 5Y CAGR
23.8%
Your model implies
27.6%
Next-year analyst consensus
19.7%
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | 24.2% | 23.6% | 22.9% | 22.1% | 21.3% |
| 10.5% | 26.5% | 25.9% | 25.3% | 24.6% | 23.9% |
| 11.5% | 28.6% | 28.1% | 27.6% | 27.0% | 26.3% |
| 12.5% | 30.7% | 30.2% | 29.7% | 29.2% | 28.6% |
| 13.5% | 32.7% | 32.2% | 31.8% | 31.3% | 30.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$10.2B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.40
Vs market benchmark
Annual diluted EPS
Per-share earnings by fiscal year — last 5 years anchor the CAGR reference above.
Frequently asked questions
ASML (ASMLF) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation