Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AVB is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$160.37
Method range
$65.63 – $199.00
median $159.42
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $160.37 | -15.71% |
| Exit multiple | $158.47 | -16.71% |
| Analyst target | $199.00 | +4.59% |
| Graham number | $65.63 | -65.51% |
- Forward DCF$160.37
- Exit multiple$158.47
- Analyst target$199.00
- Graham number$65.63
Stock price
$190.27
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.57
3Y FCF CAGR
7.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$62.55
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
22.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -204.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
7.3%
Your model implies
22.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 7% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | 18.1% | 17.0% | 15.8% | 14.5% | 12.9% |
| 7.6% | 20.9% | 20.1% | 19.1% | 18.0% | 16.8% |
| 8.6% | 23.6% | 22.8% | 22.0% | 21.1% | 20.1% |
| 9.6% | 26.0% | 25.3% | 24.6% | 23.8% | 23.0% |
| 10.6% | 28.3% | 27.7% | 27.0% | 26.4% | 25.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.18
Low vs growth
Net debt
$9.14B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.78
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks3.01% TTM
- Dividend Profile3.71% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History1 split
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.