Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AXS is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,635.59
Method range
$81.62 – $1,635.59
median $113.25
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,635.59 | +1,555.29% |
| Exit multiple | $102.83 | +4.07% |
| Analyst target | $123.67 | +25.16% |
| Graham number | $81.62 | -17.40% |
- Forward DCF$1,635.59
- Exit multiple$102.83
- Analyst target$123.67
- Graham number$81.62
Stock price
$98.81
FCF / share (TTM)
$7.01
3Y FCF CAGR
19.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$601.96
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
-3.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 83.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
19.7%
Your model implies
-3.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 20% annual growth.
Cumulative FCF covers the current price by year 7.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | -6.5% | -7.6% | -8.9% | -10.4% | -12.4% |
| 6.2% | -3.9% | -4.7% | -5.7% | -6.8% | -8.1% |
| 7.2% | -1.6% | -2.3% | -3.0% | -3.9% | -4.8% |
| 8.2% | 0.5% | -0.1% | -0.7% | -1.4% | -2.2% |
| 9.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$673M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.52
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
AXIS Capital Holdings (AXS) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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