Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AZO is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$10,799.10
Method range
$2,556.76 – $10,799.10
median $3,912.00
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $10,799.10 | +263.31% |
| Exit multiple | $2,556.76 | -13.98% |
| Analyst target | $3,912.00 | +31.61% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$10,799.10
- Exit multiple$2,556.76
- Analyst target$3,912.00
- Graham number—
Stock price
$2,972.45
FCF / share (TTM)
$27.72
3Y FCF CAGR
-4.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$398.51
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
19.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -645.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-4.9%
Your model implies
19.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -5% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 17.3% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 8.4% |
| 5.3% | 18.7% | 17.2% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 10.9% |
| 6.3% | 22.2% | 21.0% | 19.7% | 18.2% | 16.5% |
| 7.3% | 25.3% | 24.3% | 23.2% | 22.0% | 20.7% |
| 8.3% | 28.1% | 27.3% | 26.4% | 25.4% | 24.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.60
Low vs growth
Net debt
$12B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.34
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
AutoZone (AZO) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.